Regular Season - 5 · 13 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result

Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Real Sociedad, 28% draw, 30% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.67, Atletico Madrid 1.24.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

58%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Sociedad at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Sociedad0%Draw7%Atletico Madrid93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Yangel Herrera
18'
59'
🔁Alejandro Baena Rodríguezout: Johnny Cardoso
60'
🔁Marcos Llorenteout: Jonathan David
60'
🔁Lee Kang-Inout: Koke
Pellegrino Matarazzo
72'
🔁Ander Barrenetxeaout: Job Ochieng
72'
🔁Gonçalo Guedesout: Takefusa Kubo
72'
75'
Johnny Cardoso
76'
🔁Ademola Lookmanout: Arnau Ortiz
🔁Carlos Solerout: Jon Gorrotxategi
78'
Mikel Oyarzabal
78'
🔁Mikel Oyarzabalout: Orri Steinn Óskarsson
79'
84'
⚽Alejandro Grimaldo (pen)
🔁Yangel Herreraout: Arsen Zakharyan
85'
90'
⚽Jonathan Davidassist: Alejandro Grimaldo
90+5'
⚽Giuliano Simeone Baldiniassist: Dávid Hancko

Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

54%Possession46%
8Shots13
3On target5
9Corners3

Line-ups

Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1
  • 1Álex RemiroG
  • 2J. AramburuD
  • 34Luken BeitiaD
  • 19M. SarrD
  • 17Sergio GómezD
  • 21Y. HerreraM
  • 18Carlos SolerM
  • 7BarrenetxeaM
  • 24L. SučićM
  • 11Gonçalo GuedesM
  • 10Mikel OyarzabalF
Substitutes
  • 4Jon GorrotxategiM
  • 14T. KuboF
  • 22Héctor FortD
  • 29Alex GarciaF
  • 13Unai MarreroG
  • 3Aihen MuñozD
  • 12J. OchiengF
  • 16Jon PachecoD
  • 8Beñat TurrientesM
Coach: P. Matarazzo
Atletico Madrid 3-4-2-1
  • 13J. OblakG
  • 18Marc PubillD
  • 21C. RomeroD
  • 17D. HanckoD
  • 20G. SimeoneM
  • 14Marcos LlorenteM
  • 23M. HjulmandM
  • 22Álex GrimaldoM
  • 7Lee Kang-InM
  • 10Álex BaenaM
  • 11A. LookmanF
Substitutes
  • 5J. CardosoM
  • 15J. DavidF
  • 27J. DominguezD
  • 25Salvador EsquivelG
  • 6KokeM
  • 24Robin Le NormandD
  • 4Rodrigo MendozaM
  • 1J. MussoG
  • 16Arnau OrtizF
Coach: D. Simeone

Form going into Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

Real Sociedad

  • W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
  • D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
  • W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026

Atletico Madrid

  • L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
  • D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
  • W2-0Malaga19 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Real Sociedad6213611-57
5Atletico Madrid5311106+410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

  • 13 September 2026Real Sociedad 0–3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 18 April 2026Atletico Madrid 2–2 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
  • 7 March 2026Atletico Madrid 3–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 4 January 2026Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 10 May 2025Atletico Madrid 4–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 6 October 2024Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga

Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid

Real Sociedad

  • L. Sučić2 goals

Atletico Madrid

  • Álex Baena3 goals1 assists
  • G. Simeone2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.67 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.24 for Atletico Madrid; the game produced 0 and 3.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Alejandro Grimaldo 84' (Atletico Madrid), Jonathan David 90' (Atletico Madrid), Giuliano Simeone Baldini 90' (Atletico Madrid).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Real Sociedad against 1.24 for Atletico Madrid. Real Sociedad's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.97 for Atletico Madrid.