Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Real Sociedad, 25% draw, 24% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
Line-ups
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 34Luken BeitiaD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 24L. SučićM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 14T. KuboF
- 22Héctor FortD
- 29Alex GarciaF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 12J. OchiengF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 13J. OblakG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 14Marcos LlorenteM
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 22Álex GrimaldoM
- 7Lee Kang-InM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 11A. LookmanF
- 5J. CardosoM
- 15J. DavidF
- 27J. DominguezD
- 25Salvador EsquivelG
- 6KokeM
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 1J. MussoG
- 16Arnau OrtizF
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis21 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 19 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
- 18 April 2026Atletico Madrid 2–2 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
- 7 March 2026Atletico Madrid 3–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 4 January 2026Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 10 May 2025Atletico Madrid 4–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 6 October 2024Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena52
- J. David32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Madrid won 3–0 at Real Sociedad. The model had leaned towards a win for Real Sociedad at 51% and given a win for Atletico Madrid 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alejandro Grimaldo (penalty) 84' for Atletico Madrid, Jonathan David 90' for Atletico Madrid, Giuliano Simeone Baldini 90+5' for Atletico Madrid.
How the call on Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Real Sociedad's chance of winning, up 12 points.
- Real Sociedad win51%▲ +12
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Atletico Madrid win24%▼ −10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Real Sociedad's most recent league matches and Atletico Madrid's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.