Levante
vs
Barcelona
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Levante 2-4 Barcelona.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Levante, 27% draw, 43% Barcelona — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Levante 1.41, Barcelona 1.92.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Levante vs Barcelona
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Levante vs Barcelona
Line-ups
- 13M. RyanG
- 22J. ToljanD
- 4DelaD
- 2A. MandiD
- 23Manu SánchezD
- 6RequeM
- 5Hugo SoteloM
- 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
- 7BruguiM
- 10P. RatkovF
- 17Víctor GarcíaF
- 14Jorge CabelloD
- 16A. TapeD
- 18E. BardeliM
- 27Paco CortésF
- 1Pablo CuñatG
- 24T. FernándezF
- 11Yanis MusuayiF
- 3IfeanyiIfeanyi NdukweD
- 29Nacho PérezD
- 1Joan GarcíaG
- 24Eric GarcíaD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 18Gerard MartínD
- 12X. EspartD
- 7FermínM
- 16RodriM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalF
- 11RaphinhaF
- 17A. GordonF
- 3Alejandro BaldeD
- 22Marc BernalM
- 2João CanceloD
- 15A. ChristensenD
- 9Gabriel JesusF
- 6GaviM
- 23J. KoundéD
- 25D. LivakovićG
- 20Dani OlmoM
Form going into Levante vs Barcelona
Levante
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Osasuna24 August 2026
- L0-3away to Espanyol16 August 2026
Barcelona
- W5-0away to Valencia6 September 2026
- W5-2Rayo Vallecano31 August 2026
- W2-0Athletic Club27 August 2026
- W5-0away to Elche23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Levante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Levante vs Barcelona
- 13 September 2026Levante 2–4 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 22 February 2026Barcelona 3–0 LevanteLa Liga
- 23 August 2025Levante 2–3 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 10 April 2022Levante 2–3 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 26 September 2021Barcelona 3–0 LevanteLa Liga
- 11 May 2021Levante 3–3 BarcelonaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Levante and Barcelona
Levante
- Brugui3 goals
Barcelona
- Raphinha6 goals3 assists
- Lamine Yamal6 goals
- Fermín4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.41 goals for Levante and 1.92 for Barcelona; the game produced 2 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Xavi Espart 5' (Barcelona), Lamine Yamal 19' (Barcelona), Lamine Yamal 48' (Barcelona), Iván Romero 79' (Levante), Roger Brugué 88' (Levante), Karim Adeyemi 90' (Barcelona).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Levante against 1.92 for Barcelona. Levante's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.77/0.84 for Barcelona.