Vancouver Whitecaps
vs
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 58% Vancouver Whitecaps, 24% draw, 18% St. Louis City — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Vancouver Whitecaps 1.82, St. Louis City 0.90.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vancouver Whitecaps
- W5-0FC Dallas23 August 2026
- L0-1Houston Dynamo20 August 2026
- W2-0away to Seattle Sounders17 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles FC1 August 2026
- D0-0away to Minnesota United FC26 July 2026
St. Louis City
- W2-1Houston Dynamo23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City20 August 2026
- W3-1away to San Jose Earthquakes16 August 2026
- D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
- W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 18 | +27 | 40 |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Vancouver Whitecaps carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.64 for St. Louis City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Vancouver Whitecaps D-D-W-L-W; St. Louis City W-D-W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 0.90 for St. Louis City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.90 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Louis City rate 0.69 and 1.07.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 92.8% chance of the title and St. Louis City 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps against 0.9 for St. Louis City. Vancouver Whitecaps's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.07 for St. Louis City.