Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Portland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Portland Timbers, 28% draw, 33% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41J. PantemisG
- 15E. MillerD
- 20F. SurmanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 27J. ForyD
- 17C. BassettM
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 10D. Da CostaM
- 7A. LassiterF
- 14V. JanssenF
- 99K. VeldeF
- 26H. SulteG
- 2J. WatermanD
- 6A. BonetigD
- 23I. SmithD
- 21D. CharaM
- 80J. OrtizM
- 88G. GuerraF
- 22O. FernandezF
- 11AntonyF
- 12D. CallenderG
- 28J. DiazD
- 15M. BoxallD
- 23M. DugganD
- 3K. DuncanM
- 20W. TrappM
- 30O. GeneM
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 26J. PereyraF
- 22M. CaldeiraF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 1A. SmirG
- 5N. RomeroD
- 33K. ChandlerD
- 67C. HarveyM
- 16A. JacksonM
- 25N. TriantisD
- 11M. MaloneF
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 18M. GonzalezF
Form going into Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers
- L1-2Austin30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC23 August 2026
- W3-1San Diego20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire16 August 2026
- W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026
Minnesota United FC
- D3-3Orlando City SC30 August 2026
- W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
- L1-2Atlanta United FC20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
- D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
What these results say
- Portland Timbers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Portland Timbers.
- Minnesota United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Minnesota United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Minnesota United FC.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 33 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Portland Timbers and Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 51 league goals as a side.
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah152
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.