Portland Timbers
vs
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 47% Portland Timbers, 23% draw, 30% Minnesota United FC — fair odds of 2.13, 4.35 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.92, Minnesota United FC 1.53.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Portland Timbers
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC23 August 2026
- W3-1San Diego20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire16 August 2026
- W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026
Minnesota United FC
- W5-1away to San Jose Earthquakes23 August 2026
- L1-2Atlanta United FC20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
- D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 28 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portland Timbers carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.66 for Minnesota United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Portland Timbers W-W-L-W-D; Minnesota United FC D-D-D-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Portland Timbers and 1.53 for Minnesota United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portland Timbers rate 0.84 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Minnesota United FC rate 0.82 and 1.21.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portland Timbers a 0.1% chance of the title and Minnesota United FC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portland Timbers the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Portland Timbers against 1.53 for Minnesota United FC. Portland Timbers's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.21 for Minnesota United FC.