Elche
vs
Celta Vigo
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Elche 2–1 Celta Vigo
The model makes it 37% Elche, 29% draw, 34% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Elche 1.44, Celta Vigo 1.33.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Elche and Celta Vigo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Elche vs Celta Vigo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Elche at 37% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Elche vs Celta Vigo
Elche
- W3-1away to Espanyol18 September 2026
- L2-3Real Madrid15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club12 September 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Racing Santander28 August 2026
Celta Vigo
- W5-0Racing Santander19 September 2026
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
What these results say
- Elche scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Elche conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Elche.
- Celta Vigo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Celta Vigo
- 3 May 2026Celta Vigo 3–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 28 September 2025Elche 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 26 April 2023Celta Vigo 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 6 January 2023Elche 0–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 15 May 2022Celta Vigo 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 3 October 2021Elche 1–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Celta Vigo
Elche
- Fer Niño5 goals
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Elche carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.87 for Celta Vigo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Elche and 1.33 for Celta Vigo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Elche rate 1.01 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta Vigo rate 0.91 and 0.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Celta Vigo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Elche the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Elche against 1.33 for Celta Vigo. Elche's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.88 for Celta Vigo.