Elche vs Celta Vigo La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 0-0 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Elche, 28% draw, 34% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Elche at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Celta Vigo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 22Rubén SánchezD
- 47J. MorcilloD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 11Germán ValeraD
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 18T. LemarM
- 20Tete MorenteF
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 6BigasD
- 26Matia Barzic GutiérrezD
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 16Martim NetoM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 19G. DianganaF
- 17JosanM
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 15K. LomónacoD
- 13I. RaduG
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 22Javi GalánM
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 7Borja IglesiasF
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 4A. FayeD
- 24C. DriouechF
- 21S. CáceresD
- 5Sergio CarreiraD
- 30H. BurcioM
Form going into Elche vs Celta Vigo
Elche
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Espanyol18 September 2026
- L2-3Real Madrid15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club12 September 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Racing Santander28 August 2026
Celta Vigo
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Racing Santander19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia16 September 2026
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
What these results say
- Elche scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Elche conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Elche.
- Celta Vigo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Celta Vigo
- 3 May 2026Celta Vigo 3–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 28 September 2025Elche 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 26 April 2023Celta Vigo 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 6 January 2023Elche 0–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 15 May 2022Celta Vigo 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Celta Vigo
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño60
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Elche and Celta Vigo drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Elche at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.84–0.34.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Elche a 21.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.4% after a win, 21.9% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.9%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.
For Celta Vigo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.6% going in: 8.2% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 12.6%.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.