1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% 1899 Hoffenheim, 23% draw, 22% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
1899 Hoffenheim at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. BaumannG
- 34V. CoufalD
- 5O. KabakD
- 28K. MachidaD
- 13BernardoD
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 20B. ContéM
- 11F. AsllaniM
- 14A. DaghimM
- 19T. LemperleF
- 17Nathan De CatM
- 15V. GendreyD
- 10A. HložekF
- 2R. HranáčD
- 27A. KramarićF
- 9Max MoerstedtF
- 37L. PhilippG
- 22A. PrassD
- 39M. RotsD
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 33S. BornauwD
- 17W. OmariD
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 21N. RembergM
- 37L. LemkeM
- 20Fábio VieiraM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 12S. TangvikG
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 10I. PheraiM
- 43S. NandjaD
- 28M. MuheimD
- 38Alexander Røssing-LelesiitF
- 9T. MoffiF
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to SC Paderborn 0720 September 2026
- L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026
- W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
- L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
- L2-3away to 1. FC Köln29 August 2026
Hamburger SV
All competitions we cover
- W2-11. FC Köln19 September 2026
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
What these results say
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hamburger SV conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hamburger SV failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hamburger SV failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
- 25 April 2026Hamburger SV 1–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 13 December 20251899 Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 14 April 20181899 Hoffenheim 2–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 26 November 2017Hamburger SV 3–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 8 April 2017Hamburger SV 2–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
The result against the call
Hamburger SV won 3–2 at 1899 Hoffenheim. The model had leaned towards a win for 1899 Hoffenheim at 55% and given a win for Hamburger SV 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Yussuf Poulsen 12' for Hamburger SV, Sebastiaan Bornauw (own goal) 45+6' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Bambasé Conté 53' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Terem Moffi 83' for Hamburger SV, Miro Muheim 90+4' for Hamburger SV. Sent off: Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior (1899 Hoffenheim) 65'. On expected goals it finished 1.09–1.27.
How the call on 1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 50% / 25% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 55% / 23% / 22%: the biggest move is 1899 Hoffenheim's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- 1899 Hoffenheim win55%▲ +5
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Hamburger SV win22%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.