1899 Hoffenheim
vs
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 Hamburger SV
The model makes it 50% 1899 Hoffenheim, 25% draw, 25% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.29, Hamburger SV 1.24.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 50% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
- L1-3away to SC Paderborn 0720 September 2026
- W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
- L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
- L2-3away to 1. FC Köln29 August 2026
Hamburger SV
- W2-11. FC Köln19 September 2026
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
What these results say
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim had three goals or more.
- Hamburger SV conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hamburger SV failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hamburger SV failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
- 25 April 2026Hamburger SV 1–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 13 December 20251899 Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 14 April 20181899 Hoffenheim 2–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 26 November 2017Hamburger SV 3–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 8 April 2017Hamburger SV 2–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 20 November 20161899 Hoffenheim 2–2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
- A. Daghim2 goals2 assists
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
1899 Hoffenheim carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.6 for Hamburger SV. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.29 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.24 for Hamburger SV. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.07 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hamburger SV rate 0.70 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.29 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.24 for Hamburger SV. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.17 for Hamburger SV.