RB Leipzig
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: RB Leipzig 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
The model makes it 49% RB Leipzig, 24% draw, 27% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.50, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Leipzig at 49% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
RB Leipzig
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen20 September 2026
- W5-0Hamburger SV13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Werder Bremen5 September 2026
- W3-0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 August 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt
- D2-2SC Freiburg19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FSV Mainz 0512 September 2026
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Union Berlin29 August 2026
What these results say
- RB Leipzig scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for RB Leipzig had three goals or more.
- Eintracht Frankfurt scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Eintracht Frankfurt conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Eintracht Frankfurt had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- 18 April 2026Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 6 December 2025RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 26 April 2025Eintracht Frankfurt 4–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 15 December 2024RB Leipzig 2–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 4 December 2024RB Leipzig 3–0 Eintracht FrankfurtDFB Pokal
- 18 May 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt
RB Leipzig
- A. Nusa2 goals2 assists
Eintracht Frankfurt
- Y. Ebnoutalib4 goals1 assists
- J. Burkardt3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
RB Leipzig carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.88 for Eintracht Frankfurt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.50 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.54 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Leipzig rate 1.21 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eintracht Frankfurt rate 1.17 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.5 expected goals for RB Leipzig against 1.54 for Eintracht Frankfurt. RB Leipzig's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/1.13 for Eintracht Frankfurt.