Alaves
vs
Atletico Madrid
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid
The model makes it 31% Alaves, 28% draw, 41% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Alaves 1.25, Atletico Madrid 1.63.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Alaves
- D0-0away to Athletic Club19 September 2026
- L0-1Valencia15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
- W2-1Real Madrid20 September 2026
- W4-0Osasuna16 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
- Atletico Madrid won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
- 18 January 2026Atletico Madrid 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
- 30 August 2025Alaves 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 3 May 2025Alaves 0–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 23 November 2024Atletico Madrid 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 21 April 2024Alaves 2–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 29 October 2023Atletico Madrid 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
Leading scorers: Alaves and Atletico Madrid
Alaves
- L. Boyé4 goals
- M. Díaz3 goals3 assists
Atletico Madrid
- Álex Baena4 goals1 assists
- J. David3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Alaves carry a model rating of 6.85 against 7.12 for Atletico Madrid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Alaves and 1.63 for Atletico Madrid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alaves rate 0.95 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Madrid rate 1.38 and 0.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alaves a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Madrid 4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Alaves against 1.63 for Atletico Madrid. Alaves's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.38/0.81 for Atletico Madrid.