10 October 2026, 14:15 UTC

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result

Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Referee: A. Quintero
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Alaves, 27% draw, 44% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Madrid at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alaves0%Draw3%Atletico Madrid97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
⚽Alejandro Grimaldoassist: Jonathan David
45'
Ademola Lookman
45+1'
Robin Le Normand
⚽Lucas Boyé (pen)
45+6'
45'
🔁Jonathan Davidout: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
45'
🔁Ademola Lookmanout: Julián Álvarez
57'
🔁Pablo Barrios Rivasout: Lee Kang-In
•Angel Pérez Hidalgo
60'
Angel Pérez Hidalgo
61'
62'
🔁Robin Le Normandout: Dávid Hancko
🔁Antonio Blancoout: Carlos Protesoni
64'
🔁Toni Martínezout: Mariano Díaz
64'
🔁Lucas Boyéout: Ander Guevara
64'
🔁Nicolas Valentiniout: Ville Koski
71'
73'
🔁Giuliano Simeone Baldiniout: Alexander Sørloth
🔁Denis Suárezout: Aitor Mañas
79'
87'
⚽Cristian Romeroassist: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
90+2'
Johnny Cardoso

Match stats — Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

32%Possession68%
8Shots22
3On target7
0Corners10
1.13xG2.14

Goals against chances

Alaves1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth
Atletico Madrid2 from 2.14 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alaves 3-5-2
  • 1SiveraG
  • 14N. TenagliaD
  • 2N. ValentiniD
  • 17JonnyD
  • 7Angel PérezM
  • 4Denis SuárezM
  • 8Antonio BlancoM
  • 19Pablo IbáñezM
  • 21A. RebbachM
  • 11Toni MartínezF
  • 15L. BoyéF
Substitutes
  • 3YusiD
  • 24Selu DialloM
  • 10Carles AleñáM
  • 9M. DíazF
  • 6GuevaraM
  • 16V. KoskiD
  • 20Aitor MañasF
  • 12Hugo NovoaF
  • 27X. OlaizD
Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores
Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
  • 13J. OblakG
  • 14Marcos LlorenteD
  • 21C. RomeroD
  • 24Robin Le NormandD
  • 22Álex GrimaldoD
  • 6KokeM
  • 5J. CardosoM
  • 20G. SimeoneM
  • 8Pablo BarriosM
  • 11A. LookmanM
  • 15J. DavidF
Substitutes
  • 9A. SørlothF
  • 18Marc PubillD
  • 16Arnau OrtizF
  • 1J. MussoG
  • 7Lee Kang-InM
  • 23M. HjulmandM
  • 17D. HanckoD
  • 27J. DominguezD
  • 46J. CastilloM
Coach: D. Simeone

Form going into Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Alaves

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Athletic Club19 September 2026
  • L0-1Valencia15 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
  • W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
  • W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026

Atletico Madrid

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Real Madrid20 September 2026
  • W4-0Osasuna16 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
  • Atletico Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Alaves123451517-213
3Atletico Madrid129122310+1328

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

  • 18 January 2026Atletico Madrid 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
  • 30 August 2025Alaves 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 3 May 2025Alaves 0–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 23 November 2024Atletico Madrid 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
  • 21 April 2024Alaves 2–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga

The full Alaves vs Atletico Madrid record →

Leading scorers: Alaves and Atletico Madrid

Alaves

GoalsAssists

  • L. Boyé50
  • M. Díaz44

Atletico Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Baena53
  • G. Simeone42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Madrid won 2–1 at Alaves. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Atletico Madrid at 44%. The goals: Alejandro Grimaldo 33' for Atletico Madrid, Lucas Boyé (penalty) 45+6' for Alaves, Cristian Romero 87' for Atletico Madrid. Sent off: Angel Pérez Hidalgo (Alaves) 61'. On expected goals it finished 1.13–2.14.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Madrid a 74.9% chance to finish in the top four: 79.2% after a win, 74.2% after a draw, 70.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.2%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Alaves v Atletico Madrid has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 29% / 27% / 44%: the biggest move is Atletico Madrid's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Alaves win29%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Atletico Madrid win44%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.