Real Betis
vs
Osasuna
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Betis 2–0 Osasuna
The model makes it 55% Real Betis, 26% draw, 19% Osasuna — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Real Betis 2.10, Osasuna 0.77.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Real Betis vs Osasuna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Betis at 55% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Betis vs Osasuna
Real Betis
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna20 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe17 September 2026
- W2-1away to Villarreal14 September 2026
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Levante29 August 2026
Osasuna
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Atletico Madrid16 September 2026
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Betis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Betis vs Osasuna
- 12 April 2026Osasuna 1–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 28 September 2025Real Betis 2–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 11 May 2025Real Betis 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 19 October 2024Osasuna 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 5 May 2024Osasuna 0–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 29 October 2023Real Betis 2–1 OsasunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Betis and Osasuna
Real Betis
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Osasuna
- A. Budimir5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Real Betis carry a model rating of 7.05 against 6.68 for Osasuna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Real Betis and 0.77 for Osasuna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Betis rate 1.16 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Osasuna rate 0.80 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Real Betis a 0.6% chance of the title and Osasuna 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Betis the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for Real Betis against 0.77 for Osasuna. Real Betis's attack/defence rating is 1.16/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.12 for Osasuna.