Real Betis vs Osasuna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Betis 5-2 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Real Betis, 22% draw, 15% Osasuna — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Betis at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Betis vs Osasuna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro VallésG
- 2Héctor BellerínD
- 3Diego LlorenteD
- 4NatanD
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 8Pablo FornalsM
- 21Marc RocaM
- 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
- 22IscoM
- 10A. EzzalzouliM
- 9C. HernándezF
- 5Marc BartraD
- 6F. BernalM
- 25Dani CeballosM
- 13Diego CondeG
- 18N. DeossaM
- 15Álvaro FidalgoM
- 16V. GómezD
- 20G. Lo CelsoM
- 27J. A. MoranteF
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 24CatenaD
- 35U. SantosD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 7MoncayolaM
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 16Moi GómezM
- 17A. BudimirF
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 48R. YeboahD
- 19V. RosierD
- 15Diego RicoD
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 21Jonathan DubasinF
- 22F. BoyomoD
Form going into Real Betis vs Osasuna
Real Betis
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna20 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe17 September 2026
- W2-1away to Villarreal14 September 2026
- W3-2away to Lille8 September 2026
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
Osasuna
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Atletico Madrid16 September 2026
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Betis went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Real Betis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Betis won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 26 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Betis vs Osasuna
- 12 April 2026Osasuna 1–1 Real BetisLa Liga
- 28 September 2025Real Betis 2–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 11 May 2025Real Betis 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
- 19 October 2024Osasuna 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 5 May 2024Osasuna 0–2 Real BetisLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Betis and Osasuna
Real Betis
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Betis beat Osasuna 5–2. The model had made a win for Real Betis its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Isco (penalty) 10' for Real Betis, Abde Ezzalzouli 31' for Real Betis, Ante Budimir (own goal) 48' for Real Betis, Ante Budimir 51' for Osasuna, Raul García 56' for Osasuna, Isco 67' for Real Betis, José Antonio Morante Antúnez 90+6' for Real Betis. On expected goals it finished 2.96–2.00.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Betis a 64.2% chance to finish in the top four: 67.2% after a win, 57.9% after a draw, 55.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.2%, 3 points higher than before the match.
For Osasuna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 34.8% going in: 25.7% after a win, 31.3% after a draw, 37.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.1%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Betis v Osasuna has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 55% / 26% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 63% / 22% / 15%: the biggest move is Real Betis's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Real Betis win63%▲ +8
- Draw22%▼ −4
- Osasuna win15%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.