Real Madrid
vs
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Real Madrid, 25% draw, 21% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.26, Rayo Vallecano 0.98.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Line-ups
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 7Vinícius JúniorM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 2Raúl AsencioD
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 9EndrickF
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 15A. GülerM
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 6P. CissD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 36G. BouareM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 14G. TsitaishviliM
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 18Álvaro GarcíaM
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 20I. BalliuD
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 30Adrián MolinaG
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 26Marco de las SíasD
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 37Rayane BelidF
Form going into Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
- W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad26 August 2026
- W2-1away to Espanyol22 August 2026
Rayo Vallecano
- W3-2Racing Santander5 September 2026
- L2-5away to Barcelona31 August 2026
- D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sevilla15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
- 12 September 2026Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 1 February 2026Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 9 November 2025Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real MadridLa Liga
- 9 March 2025Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 14 December 2024Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real MadridLa Liga
- 18 February 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappé6 goals1 assists
- J. Bellingham3 goals2 assists
Rayo Vallecano
- Sergio Camello6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.26 goals for Real Madrid and 0.98 for Rayo Vallecano; the game produced 4 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Kylian Mbappé 14' (Real Madrid), Álvaro Fernández Carreras 17' (Real Madrid), Jude Bellingham 35' (Real Madrid), Sergio Camello 51' (Rayo Vallecano), Kylian Mbappé 90' (Real Madrid).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Real Madrid against 0.98 for Rayo Vallecano. Real Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.3/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.07 for Rayo Vallecano.