12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano La Liga prediction & result

Madrid
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Real Madrid, 26% draw, 23% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Madrid at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Madrid99%Draw1%Rayo Vallecano0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kylian Mbappé (pen)
14'
⚽Álvaro Fernández Carrerasassist: Kylian Mbappé
17'
⚽Jude Bellinghamassist: Vinícius
35'
🔁Federico Valverdeout: Eduardo Camavinga
45'
51'
⚽Sergio Camello
67'
🔁Gnangoro Bouareout: Óscar Valentín
67'
🔁Pedro Díazout: Rayane Belaid
🔁Bernardo Silvaout: Aurelien Tchouameni
69'
🔁Yan Diomandeout: Arda Güler
72'
75'
🔁Sergio Camelloout: Alexandre Zurawski
75'
🔁Unai Lópezout: Mujaid Sadick
76'
Pathé Ciss
85'
🔁Adrià Pedrosaout: Ivan Balliu
🔁Viníciusout: Marc Cucurella
89'
⚽Kylian Mbappéassist: Arda Güler
90+1'

Match stats — Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

56%Possession44%
24Shots18
11On target7
11Corners5

Line-ups

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 16I. KonatéD
  • 22A. RüdigerD
  • 18Álvaro FernándezD
  • 8F. ValverdeM
  • 20Bernardo SilvaM
  • 25Y. DiomandeM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 7Vinícius JúniorM
  • 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
  • 2Raúl AsencioD
  • 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 17Marc CucurellaD
  • 21Brahim DíazM
  • 9EndrickF
  • 19Carlos EspíF
  • 15A. GülerM
  • 4D. HuijsenD
Coach: José Mourinho
Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
  • 25E. AuderoG
  • 2A. RațiuD
  • 24F. LejeuneD
  • 6P. CissD
  • 17Adrià PedrosaD
  • 36G. BouareM
  • 8Unai LópezM
  • 14G. TsitaishviliM
  • 4Pedro DíazM
  • 18Álvaro GarcíaM
  • 10Sergio CamelloF
Substitutes
  • 20I. BalliuD
  • 23Óscar ValentínM
  • 15Mujaid SadickD
  • 30Adrián MolinaG
  • 3M. KumbullaD
  • 22Pelayo FernándezD
  • 26Marco de las SíasD
  • 1Dani CárdenasG
  • 37Rayane BelidF
Coach: Beñat San José

Form going into Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Real Madrid

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Inter8 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
  • W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
  • W4-1Real Sociedad26 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Espanyol22 August 2026

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Racing Santander5 September 2026
  • L2-5away to Barcelona31 August 2026
  • D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Sevilla15 August 2026

What these results say

  • Real Madrid won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Real Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Real Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rayo Vallecano scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Rayo Vallecano conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Rayo Vallecano.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Real Madrid108022510+1524
16Rayo Vallecano92341220-89

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

  • 1 February 2026Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • 9 November 2025Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 9 March 2025Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • 14 December 2024Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 18 February 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real MadridLa Liga

The full Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano record →

Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano

Real Madrid

GoalsAssists

  • Kylian Mbappé112
  • J. Bellingham33

Rayo Vallecano

GoalsAssists

  • Sergio Camello71
  • Álvaro García32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1. The model had made a win for Real Madrid its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kylian Mbappé (penalty) 14' for Real Madrid, Álvaro Fernández Carreras 17' for Real Madrid, Jude Bellingham 35' for Real Madrid, Sergio Camello 51' for Rayo Vallecano, Kylian Mbappé 90+1' for Real Madrid.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.