Racing Santander
vs
Alaves
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Racing Santander, 28% draw, 33% Alaves — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Racing Santander 1.65, Alaves 1.43.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Racing Santander vs Alaves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Racing Santander at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Racing Santander vs Alaves
Line-ups
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Álvaro MantillaD
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 24J. BelocianD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 23Iván MartínM
- 18M. PratiM
- 15Pablo GarcíaM
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 21M. ZabiriF
- 22Pedro FelipeD
- 31Laro GómezG
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 14M. GueyeM
- 6Íñigo Sainz-MazaM
- 8André AlmeidaM
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 9Juan Carlos AranaF
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17JonnyD
- 7Angel PérezM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 15L. BoyéF
- 9M. DíazF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 27X. OlaizD
- 3YusiD
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 6GuevaraM
- 24Selu DialloM
- 10Carles AleñáM
Form going into Racing Santander vs Alaves
Racing Santander
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe23 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal16 August 2026
Alaves
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
- W3-0Getafe15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Racing Santander | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Alaves | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Alaves
- 12 September 2026Racing Santander 2–1 AlavesLa Liga
- 7 August 2026Racing Santander 1–1 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
- 17 July 2024Racing Santander 0–0 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
- 22 July 2023Racing Santander 1–2 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
- 21 January 2023Alaves 3–0 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 1 November 2022Racing Santander 1–1 AlavesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Alaves
Racing Santander
- M. Zabiri5 goals
Alaves
- L. Boyé4 goals
- M. Díaz3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.65 goals for Racing Santander and 1.43 for Alaves; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ville Koski 18' (Alaves), Yassir Zabiri 38' (Racing Santander), Yassir Zabiri 53' (Racing Santander).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Racing Santander the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Racing Santander against 1.43 for Alaves. Racing Santander's attack/defence rating is 1.1/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.92 for Alaves.