Racing Santander vs Alaves La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Racing Santander, 27% draw, 38% Alaves — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alaves at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Racing Santander vs Alaves
Line-ups
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Álvaro MantillaD
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 24J. BelocianD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 23Iván MartínM
- 18M. PratiM
- 15Pablo GarcíaM
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 21M. ZabiriF
- 22Pedro FelipeD
- 31Laro GómezG
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 14M. GueyeM
- 6Íñigo Sainz-MazaM
- 8André AlmeidaM
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 9Juan Carlos AranaF
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17JonnyD
- 7Angel PérezM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 15L. BoyéF
- 9M. DíazF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 27X. OlaizD
- 3YusiD
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 6GuevaraM
- 24Selu DialloM
- 10Carles AleñáM
Form going into Racing Santander vs Alaves
Racing Santander
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe23 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal16 August 2026
Alaves
All competitions we cover
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
- W3-0Getafe15 August 2026
What these results say
- Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Racing Santander failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Racing Santander scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alaves went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Alaves scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Alaves won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 11 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Alaves
- 7 August 2026Racing Santander 1–1 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
- 17 July 2024Racing Santander 0–0 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
- 22 July 2023Racing Santander 1–2 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
- 21 January 2023Alaves 3–0 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 1 November 2022Racing Santander 1–1 AlavesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Alaves
Racing Santander
GoalsAssists
- M. Zabiri80
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Racing Santander beat Alaves 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Alaves at 38% and given a win for Racing Santander 35%. The goals: Ville Koski 18' for Alaves, Yassir Zabiri 38' for Racing Santander, Yassir Zabiri 53' for Racing Santander. Sent off: André Almeida (Racing Santander) 89'.
How the call on Racing Santander v Alaves has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Alaves's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Racing Santander win35%▼ −3
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Alaves win38%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.