Regular Season - 3 · 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga prediction & result

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Borussia Dortmund, 29% draw, 19% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 1.92, 3.45 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 1.75, SC Paderborn 07 0.65.

Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07

40%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 15%2-0 14%1-1 11%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Borussia Dortmund at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Borussia Dortmund99%Draw1%SC Paderborn 070%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Fábio Silvaassist: Serhou Guirassy
5'
•Serhou Guirassy
31'
39'
Laurin Ulrich
•Serhou Guirassy
45+3'
🔁Joey Veermanout: Felix Nmecha
65'
🔁Fábio Silvaout: Carney Chukwuemeka
65'
🔁Ethan Nwaneriout: Marcel Sabitzer
65'
Jobe Bellingham
66'
67'
🔁Laurin Curdaout: Clemens Lippmann
67'
🔁Stefano Marinoout: Steffen Tigges
67'
🔁Gabriel Vidovićout: Oliver Batista Meier
🔁Julian Ryersonout: Maximilian Beier
77'
77'
🔁Laurin Ulrichout: Luka Đurić
🔁Nico Schlotterbeckout: Ramy Bensebaini
77'
⚽Felix Nmechaassist: Maximilian Beier
80'
82'
🔁Mattes Hansenout: Rayan Philippe
⚽Felix Nmechaassist: Marcel Sabitzer
89'

Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07

56%Possession44%
14Shots10
8On target0
7Corners3

Line-ups

Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. KobelG
  • 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
  • 3W. AntonD
  • 4N. SchlotterbeckD
  • 26J. RyersonM
  • 25J. VeermanM
  • 7J. BellinghamM
  • 24D. SvenssonM
  • 18E. NwaneriM
  • 21Fábio SilvaM
  • 9S. GuirassyF
Substitutes
  • 41M. AlbertF
  • 14M. BeierF
  • 5R. BensebaïniD
  • 17C. ChukwuemekaM
  • 33A. MeyerG
  • 8F. NmechaM
  • 36Kauã PratesD
  • 49L. ReggianiD
  • 20M. SabitzerM
Coach: N. Kovač
SC Paderborn 07 3-5-2
  • 15N. NollG
  • 21J. ter HorstD
  • 25T. SchellerD
  • 22M. HansenD
  • 17L. CurdaM
  • 28L. UlrichM
  • 5S. CastañedaM
  • 40G. VidovićM
  • 23R. ObermairM
  • 30S. MarinoF
  • 18M. PieringerF
Substitutes
  • 27S. TiggesF
  • 3Jonah Benedict StickerM
  • 1M. SchubertG
  • 9R. PhilippeF
  • 29C. LippmannD
  • 20F. GötzeD
  • 7O. Batista MeierM
  • 6T. BaackM
  • 8L. ĐurićM
Coach: R. Kettemann

Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07

Borussia Dortmund

  • W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
  • W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026

SC Paderborn 07

  • L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Borussia Dortmund330082+69
15SC Paderborn 07301204-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07

  • 12 September 2026Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
  • 2 February 2021Borussia Dortmund 3–2 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
  • 28 August 2020Borussia Dortmund 1–1 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
  • 31 May 2020SC Paderborn 07 1–6 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
  • 22 November 2019Borussia Dortmund 3–3 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
  • 28 October 2015Borussia Dortmund 7–1 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal

Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07

Borussia Dortmund

  • S. Guirassy2 goals2 assists
  • F. Nmecha2 goals

SC Paderborn 07

No league goals yet this season.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.75 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.65 for SC Paderborn 07; the game produced 3 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Fábio Silva 5' (Borussia Dortmund), Felix Nmecha 80' (Borussia Dortmund), Felix Nmecha 89' (Borussia Dortmund).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund against 0.65 for SC Paderborn 07. Borussia Dortmund's attack/defence rating is 1.31/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/0.82 for SC Paderborn 07.