Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Borussia Dortmund, 30% draw, 22% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Line-ups
- 1G. KobelG
- 22Kouakou Joane GadouD
- 3W. AntonD
- 4N. SchlotterbeckD
- 26J. RyersonM
- 25J. VeermanM
- 7J. BellinghamM
- 24D. SvenssonM
- 18E. NwaneriM
- 21Fábio SilvaM
- 9S. GuirassyF
- 41M. AlbertF
- 14M. BeierF
- 5R. BensebaïniD
- 17C. ChukwuemekaM
- 33A. MeyerG
- 8F. NmechaM
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 49L. ReggianiD
- 20M. SabitzerM
- 15N. NollG
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 25T. SchellerD
- 22M. HansenD
- 17L. CurdaM
- 28L. UlrichM
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 40G. VidovićM
- 23R. ObermairM
- 30S. MarinoF
- 18M. PieringerF
- 27S. TiggesF
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerM
- 1M. SchubertG
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 29C. LippmannD
- 20F. GötzeD
- 7O. Batista MeierM
- 6T. BaackM
- 8L. ĐurićM
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Dortmund
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Villarreal8 September 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
- W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026
SC Paderborn 07
All competitions we cover
- L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FSV Mainz 0529 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 17 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
- 2 February 2021Borussia Dortmund 3–2 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
- 28 August 2020Borussia Dortmund 1–1 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
- 31 May 2020SC Paderborn 07 1–6 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 22 November 2019Borussia Dortmund 3–3 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 28 October 2015Borussia Dortmund 7–1 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
The result against the call
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Paderborn 07 3–0. The model had made a win for Borussia Dortmund its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Fábio Silva 5' for Borussia Dortmund, Felix Nmecha 80' for Borussia Dortmund, Felix Nmecha 89' for Borussia Dortmund.
How the call on Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 32% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 48% / 30% / 22%: the biggest move is Borussia Dortmund's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Borussia Dortmund win48%▲ +6
- Draw30%▼ −2
- SC Paderborn 07 win22%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.