1899 Hoffenheim
vs
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% 1899 Hoffenheim, 28% draw, 29% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.76, VfB Stuttgart 1.24.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Line-ups
- 1O. BaumannG
- 34V. CoufalD
- 5O. KabakD
- 21A. HajdariD
- 39M. RotsD
- 20B. ContéM
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 14A. DaghimM
- 10A. HložekF
- 19T. LemperleF
- 11F. AsllaniF
- 17Nathan De CatM
- 15V. GendreyD
- 2R. HranáčD
- 27A. KramarićF
- 28K. MachidaD
- 9Max MoerstedtF
- 37L. PhilippG
- 8P. WimmerM
- 1F. BredlowG
- 29Finn JeltschD
- 24J. ChabotD
- 3R. HendriksD
- 4J. VagnomanM
- 21G. PrömelM
- 6A. StillerM
- 7M. MittelstädtM
- 9E. DemirovićM
- 10C. FührichM
- 17D. PejčinovićF
- 16A. KarazorM
- 18J. LewelingF
- 44L. SauerF
- 47Y. SpaltD
- 20L. StergiouD
- 26D. UndavF
- 11B. El KhannoussM
- 33M. FunkG
- 37Maximilian Tobias HerwerthD
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
- L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
- L2-3away to 1. FC Köln29 August 2026
VfB Stuttgart
- W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
- L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
- 12 September 20261899 Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 2 May 20261899 Hoffenheim 3–3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 20 December 2025VfB Stuttgart 0–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 23 February 20251899 Hoffenheim 1–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 6 October 2024VfB Stuttgart 1–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 16 March 20241899 Hoffenheim 0–3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
- A. Hložek2 goals
VfB Stuttgart
- J. Vagnoman2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.76 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.24 for VfB Stuttgart; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Adam Hložek 13' (1899 Hoffenheim), Maximilian Mittelstädt 48' (VfB Stuttgart), Adam Hložek 67' (1899 Hoffenheim).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.24 for VfB Stuttgart. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.06 for VfB Stuttgart.