Osasuna vs Espanyol La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Osasuna 0-2 Espanyol.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Osasuna, 29% draw, 29% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Osasuna at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Osasuna vs Espanyol
Line-ups
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 24CatenaD
- 48R. YeboahD
- 15Diego RicoD
- 7MoncayolaM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 9Raúl GarcíaM
- 11Kike BarjaM
- 17A. BudimirF
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 31Rafa FernándezG
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 35U. SantosD
- 18Raul MoroF
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 30Asier BonelF
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 5C. RiedelD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 18Marcos FernándezM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 24T. DolanM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 22Álex CalatravaF
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 20Gabriel MoscardoM
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 17Jofre CarrerasF
- 32J. A. LopezD
- 10Pol LozanoM
Form going into Osasuna vs Espanyol
Osasuna
All competitions we cover
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026
- D0-0Levante24 August 2026
Espanyol
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026
- W3-0Levante16 August 2026
What these results say
- Osasuna scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Espanyol scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Espanyol failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Espanyol conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Espanyol
- 17 May 2026Osasuna 1–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 31 August 2025Espanyol 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 18 May 2025Osasuna 2–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 14 December 2024Espanyol 0–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 4 February 2023Espanyol 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Osasuna and Espanyol
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir70
Espanyol
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Fernández60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Espanyol won 2–0 at Osasuna. The model had leaned towards a win for Osasuna at 42% and given a win for Espanyol 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Roberto Fernández Jaén 3' for Espanyol, Roberto Fernández Jaén 17' for Espanyol.
How the call on Osasuna v Espanyol has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Osasuna's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Osasuna win42%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Espanyol win29%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.