Osasuna
vs
Espanyol
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Osasuna 0-2 Espanyol.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Osasuna, 30% draw, 34% Espanyol — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Osasuna 1.32, Espanyol 1.24.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Osasuna vs Espanyol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Osasuna at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Osasuna vs Espanyol
Line-ups
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 24CatenaD
- 48R. YeboahD
- 15Diego RicoD
- 7MoncayolaM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 9Raúl GarcíaM
- 11Kike BarjaM
- 17A. BudimirF
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 31Rafa FernándezG
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 35U. SantosD
- 18Raul MoroF
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 30Asier BonelF
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 13M. DmitrovićG
- 23O. El HilaliD
- 5C. RiedelD
- 6L. CabreraD
- 21Roger HinojoD
- 8Edu ExpósitoM
- 4Urko GonzálezM
- 18Marcos FernándezM
- 28Javier HernandezM
- 24T. DolanM
- 9Roberto FernándezF
- 22Álex CalatravaF
- 26Rafel BauzàM
- 16V. DrkušićD
- 1Ángel FortuñoG
- 20Gabriel MoscardoM
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 17Jofre CarrerasF
- 32J. A. LopezD
- 10Pol LozanoM
Form going into Osasuna vs Espanyol
Osasuna
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026
- D0-0Levante24 August 2026
Espanyol
- D1-1Sevilla6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Real Sociedad29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Madrid22 August 2026
- W3-0Levante16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Osasuna vs Espanyol
- 12 September 2026Osasuna 0–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 17 May 2026Osasuna 1–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 31 August 2025Espanyol 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 18 May 2025Osasuna 2–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 14 December 2024Espanyol 0–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 4 February 2023Espanyol 1–1 OsasunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Osasuna and Espanyol
Osasuna
- A. Budimir4 goals
Espanyol
- Roberto Fernández5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.32 goals for Osasuna and 1.24 for Espanyol; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Roberto Fernández Jaén 3' (Espanyol), Roberto Fernández Jaén 17' (Espanyol).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Osasuna against 1.24 for Espanyol. Osasuna's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.83 for Espanyol.