Cannes
vs
Aubagne
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Cannes 2–0 Aubagne
The model makes it 63% Cannes, 24% draw, 13% Aubagne — fair odds of 1.59, 4.17 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Cannes 1.95, Aubagne 0.64.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Cannes are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Cannes's rating is built from 12 Ligue 3 matches and Aubagne's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Cannes are 7th on 18 points from 12 games; Aubagne are 17th on 7 points from 12 games — Ligue 3.
- Cannes have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Thionville Lusitanos.
- Aubagne are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Amiens.
- Last 4 meetings: Aubagne 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 April 2024, ended Aubagne 2–1 Cannes.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cannes vs Aubagne
Has the model earned this number?
Cannes at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cannes vs Aubagne
Cannes
Ligue 3
- L0-1away to Thionville Lusitanos7 November 2026
- W2-1Valenciennes31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Villefranche17 October 2026
- W3-1Quevilly3 October 2026
- D0-0away to Orleans26 September 2026
Aubagne
Ligue 3
- L0-2Amiens7 November 2026
- L0-4away to Versailles31 October 2026
- L0-1Le Puy Foot17 October 2026
- L1-3away to La Roche VF3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleury 9126 September 2026
What these results say
- Cannes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aubagne conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aubagne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cannes | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 18 |
| 17 | Aubagne | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cannes
Chance to finish in the top six · 64% today
Aubagne
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 81% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Cannes vs Aubagne
- 13 April 2024Aubagne 2–1 CannesNational 2 - Group A
- 25 November 2023Cannes 0–1 AubagneNational 2 - Group A
- 15 February 2020Cannes 0–1 AubagneNational 3 - Group D
- 7 September 2019Aubagne 1–1 CannesNational 3 - Group D
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cannes a 4.9% chance of the title and Aubagne 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cannes the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Cannes against 0.64 for Aubagne. Cannes's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/2.45 for Aubagne.
How the model reaches 63% for Cannes to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cannes to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Cannes's ratings add 9 points and Aubagne's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Cannes's ratings51%+9
- Aubagne's ratings63%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cannes at home · Aubagne away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Cannes 12, Aubagne 12.
Aubagne score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Cannes have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cannes
- at Caen3 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
- vs Bourg-en-bresse 0112 Dec · Ligue 3win 64%
- at Gobelins16 Jan · Ligue 3win 40%
- vs Concarneau23 Jan · Ligue 3win 49%
- at Fleury 9130 Jan · Ligue 3win 34%
Aubagne
- vs Orleans5 Dec · Ligue 3win 34%
- at Quevilly12 Dec · Ligue 3win 20%
- vs Villefranche16 Jan · Ligue 3win 44%
- at Valenciennes23 Jan · Ligue 3win 21%
- at Bastia30 Jan · Ligue 3win 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.