Las Palmas vs Leganes Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Las Palmas 0-0 Leganes.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Las Palmas, 29% draw, 30% Leganes — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Las Palmas at 41% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Las Palmas vs Leganes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. CaroG
- 25V. PezzolesiD
- 4Alex SuarezD
- 15J. HerzogD
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 20K. RodriguezM
- 6I. GonzalezM
- 19S. RamirezM
- 7J. BetancorF
- 14M. FusterF
- 35A. SuarezG
- 41J. ValverdeG
- 5E. ClementeD
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 24Ivan JaimeM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 16M. AcimovicM
- 26A. BassingaM
- 30I. MedinaF
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 6G. Aguilar LopezD
- 5I. MiquelD
- 2MarvelD
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 20M. AtienzaM
- 11N. GarciaF
- 17I. GharbiM
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 7R. PenaF
- 21A. MorataF
- 1R. FernandezG
- 31N. LozanoG
- 3J. MonteroD
- 4R. PulidoD
- 29D. HamansenyaD
- 14D. RodriguezM
- 9A. MillanF
- 22Alex SancrisF
- 18A. CamposF
Form going into Las Palmas vs Leganes
Las Palmas
- L2-5away to Girona29 August 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC22 August 2026
- W2-1Albacete16 August 2026
Leganes
- W1-0Eldense29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Oviedo22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Girona16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Las Palmas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Leganes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Leganes
- 17 April 2026Las Palmas 2–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 20 September 2025Leganes 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 18 May 2025Las Palmas 0–1 LeganesLa Liga
- 25 August 2024Leganes 2–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 18 February 2023Leganes 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 9 September 2022Las Palmas 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Las Palmas and Leganes
Las Palmas
- T. Miyashiro2 goals2 assists
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.