Las Palmas
vs
Leganes
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 53% Las Palmas, 28% draw, 19% Leganes — fair odds of 1.89, 3.57 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Las Palmas 1.46, Leganes 0.77.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Las Palmas
- W2-1Albacete16 August 2026
Leganes
- D1-1away to Girona16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Las Palmas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Leganes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Leganes
- 17 April 2026Las Palmas 2–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 20 September 2025Leganes 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 18 May 2025Las Palmas 0–1 LeganesLa Liga
- 25 August 2024Leganes 2–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 18 February 2023Leganes 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 9 September 2022Las Palmas 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
Leading scorers
Las Palmas
- Sandro Ramírez1 goals
- Jesé1 goals
Leganes
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Las Palmas carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.72 for Leganes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Las Palmas W; Leganes D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Las Palmas and 0.77 for Leganes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Las Palmas rate 0.92 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leganes rate 0.56 and 0.84.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 42% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Las Palmas the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Las Palmas against 0.77 for Leganes. Las Palmas's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/0.84 for Leganes.