VfB Stuttgart
vs
1. FC Köln
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 47% VfB Stuttgart, 22% draw, 31% 1. FC Köln — fair odds of 2.13, 4.55 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.03, 1. FC Köln 1.62.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln
- 14 February 2026VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 28 September 20251. FC Köln 1–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 24 February 2024VfB Stuttgart 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 30 September 20231. FC Köln 0–2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 18 February 2023VfB Stuttgart 3–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 19 November 20221. FC Köln 2–4 VfB StuttgartFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VfB Stuttgart carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.9 for 1. FC Köln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.62 for 1. FC Köln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfB Stuttgart rate 1.13 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Köln rate 1.06 and 0.95.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 480 correct results out of 1000 settled predictions (48%), with 91 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfB Stuttgart the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart against 1.62 for 1. FC Köln. VfB Stuttgart's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.95 for 1. FC Köln.