Real Betis
vs
Getafe
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Real Betis 1–0 Getafe
The model makes it 47% Real Betis, 28% draw, 25% Getafe — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Real Betis 1.74, Getafe 0.94.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Real Betis vs Getafe
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Real Betis wins, grey are draws, red are Getafe wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Betis at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Betis vs Getafe
Real Betis
- W2-1away to Villarreal14 September 2026
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Levante29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Valencia25 August 2026
- W1-0Real Sociedad21 August 2026
Getafe
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
- D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Osasuna31 August 2026
- W1-0Racing Santander23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Alaves15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Getafe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Betis vs Getafe
- 8 March 2026Getafe 2–0 Real BetisLa Liga
- 21 December 2025Real Betis 4–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 23 February 2025Getafe 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 18 September 2024Real Betis 2–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 4 February 2024Real Betis 1–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 21 October 2023Getafe 1–1 Real BetisLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Betis and Getafe
Real Betis
- Rodrigo Riquelme2 goals
Getafe
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Real Betis carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.78 for Getafe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Real Betis and 0.94 for Getafe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Betis rate 1.14 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Getafe rate 0.80 and 0.94.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Betis the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Real Betis against 0.94 for Getafe. Real Betis's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/0.94 for Getafe.