Deportivo La Coruna
vs
Sevilla
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 Sevilla
The model makes it 38% Deportivo La Coruna, 28% draw, 34% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.56, Sevilla 1.44.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Deportivo La Coruna wins, grey are draws, red are Sevilla wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo La Coruna at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Deportivo La Coruna
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
- W3-1Valencia30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga24 August 2026
- D1-1Elche17 August 2026
Sevilla
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico Madrid29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026
- W2-1Rayo Vallecano15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
- 17 April 2018Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 2 December 2017Sevilla 2–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 8 April 2017Sevilla 4–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 19 November 2016Deportivo La Coruna 2–3 SevillaLa Liga
- 17 April 2016Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 5 December 2015Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 SevillaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla
Deportivo La Coruna
- P. Aubameyang5 goals2 assists
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo La Coruna carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.85 for Sevilla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.44 for Sevilla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo La Coruna rate 1.04 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sevilla rate 0.92 and 0.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sevilla, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo La Coruna the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna against 1.44 for Sevilla. Deportivo La Coruna's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.92 for Sevilla.