Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Sevilla.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Deportivo La Coruna, 28% draw, 35% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo La Coruna at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Line-ups
- 13Leo RománG
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 20J. GiménezD
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 17AngeliñoD
- 19Luismi CruzM
- 16L. AmatucciM
- 14Riki RodríguezM
- 10PekeM
- 32B. NsongoF
- 7P. AubameyangF
- 8Diego VillaresM
- 6Marc CasadóM
- 9Z. EddahchouriF
- 22B. EdeD
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
- 11David MellaF
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 6L. AgouméM
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 30M. SierraM
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 20Félix CorreiaM
- 19L. StassinF
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 21C. EjukeF
- 10Peque FernándezF
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 34Iker Ortín MuñozD
- 16IsaacF
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Deportivo La Coruna
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
- W3-1Valencia30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga24 August 2026
- D1-1Elche17 August 2026
Sevilla
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico Madrid29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026
- W2-1Rayo Vallecano15 August 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo La Coruna went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sevilla scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sevilla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Sevilla.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
- 17 April 2018Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 2 December 2017Sevilla 2–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 8 April 2017Sevilla 4–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 19 November 2016Deportivo La Coruna 2–3 SevillaLa Liga
- 17 April 2016Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Sevilla
GoalsAssists
- Isaac31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sevilla won 1–0 at Deportivo La Coruna. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo La Coruna at 37% and given a win for Sevilla 35%. The goal: Miguel Sierra 52' for Sevilla. Sent off: Angeliño (Deportivo La Coruna) 59'.
How the call on Deportivo La Coruna v Sevilla has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Deportivo La Coruna's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Deportivo La Coruna win37%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Sevilla win35%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.