FC Rostov
vs
Dynamo
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Rostov 1–2 Dynamo
The model makes it 32% FC Rostov, 29% draw, 39% Dynamo — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Rostov 1.25, Dynamo 1.53.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Rostov vs Dynamo
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FC Rostov wins, grey are draws, red are Dynamo wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dynamo at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Rostov vs Dynamo
FC Rostov
- L0-3away to Spartak Moscow13 September 2026
- W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Akhmat22 August 2026
- D1-1Rubin15 August 2026
Dynamo
- W1-0FC Orenburg12 September 2026
- W2-1Spartak Moscow6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lokomotiv29 August 2026
- W3-1Rodina Moskva23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Zenit16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FC Rostov | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 8 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Dynamo
- 14 March 2026FC Rostov 0–1 DynamoPremier League
- 26 July 2025Dynamo 1–0 FC RostovPremier League
- 2 March 2025FC Rostov 1–1 DynamoPremier League
- 1 November 2024Dynamo 1–1 FC RostovPremier League
- 29 March 2024Dinamo Moscow 1–4 FC RostovPremier League
- 3 September 2023FC Rostov 1–2 Dinamo MoscowPremier League
The two sides
FC Rostov carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.35 for Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for FC Rostov and 1.53 for Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Rostov rate 0.47 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo rate 0.60 and 1.64.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Rostov a 0% chance of the title and Dynamo 11.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Rostov against 1.53 for Dynamo. FC Rostov's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.64 for Dynamo.