17 September 2026, 19:30 UTC

Malaga vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result

Estadio La Rosaleda
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Malaga 1-3 Villarreal.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Malaga, 30% draw, 34% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Malaga at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Malaga0%Draw1%Villarreal99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Carlos Dotorassist: Juan Cruz
12'
José Salinas
34'
37'
🔁Santi Comesañaout: Pape Gueye
40'
⚽Alberto Moleiroassist: Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
42'
Ilias Akhomach Chakkour
45+2'
⚽Pape Gueyeassist: Ayoze Pérez
🔁Juan Cruzout: Dani Lorenzo
45'
🔁José Salinasout: Rafael Garrido Hierro
45'
🔁Izan Merinoout: Joaquín Muñoz
61'
🔁Carlos Dotorout: Adrian Nino
61'
63'
🔁Ayoze Pérezout: Georges Mikautadze
63'
🔁Ilias Akhomach Chakkourout: Carlos Romero
David Larrubia
68'
Einar Galilea
70'
🔁Carlos Pugaout: Ramón Enríquez
75'
Ramón Enríquez
79'
80'
🔁Alberto Moleiroout: Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González
80'
🔁Nathan-Dylan Salibaout: Carlos Macià
82'
•Carlos Romero
Alfonso Herrero
85'
86'
⚽Pape Gueye (pen)

Match stats — Malaga vs Villarreal

37%Possession63%
5Shots16
1On target7
4Corners8

Line-ups

Malaga 4-1-4-1
  • 1Alfonso HerreroG
  • 3PugaD
  • 15Ángel RecioD
  • 4Einar GalileaD
  • 12José SalinasD
  • 23Izan MerinoM
  • 19Juan CruzM
  • 10David LarrubiaM
  • 8Carlos DotorM
  • 18Pablo MartínezM
  • 9ChupeF
Substitutes
  • 25Juan BerrocalD
  • 32J. FernandezF
  • 31RafitaD
  • 17Eneko JauregiF
  • 22Dani LorenzoM
  • 13Carlos LópezG
  • 11Joaquín MuñozF
  • 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
  • 5Álex PastorD
Coach: Funes
Villarreal 4-4-2
  • 25P. GulácsiG
  • 3A. FreemanD
  • 6Pau NavarroD
  • 12Renato VeigaD
  • 23Sergi CardonaD
  • 11Ilias AkhomachM
  • 24N. SalibaM
  • 14Santi ComesañaM
  • 17T. BuchananM
  • 10Alberto MoleiroF
  • 22Ayoze PérezF
Substitutes
  • 13Rubén GómezG
  • 18P. GueyeM
  • 9G. MikautadzeF
  • 7Gerard MorenoF
  • 15S. MouriñoD
  • 21T. OluwaseyiF
  • 19N. PépéF
  • 1Luíz JúniorG
  • 20Carlos RomeroD
Coach: Iñigo Pérez

Form going into Malaga vs Villarreal

Malaga

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Celta Vigo13 September 2026
  • D0-0Levante6 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026

Villarreal

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
  • L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Malaga did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Malaga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Malaga had two goals or fewer.
  • Villarreal did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Villarreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Villarreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Malaga10055719-125
10Villarreal103341514+112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Malaga vs Villarreal

  • 1 April 2018Malaga 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
  • 5 November 2017Villarreal 2–0 MalagaLa Liga
  • 12 February 2017Villarreal 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
  • 10 September 2016Malaga 0–2 VillarrealLa Liga
  • 13 February 2016Villarreal 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
  • 23 September 2015Malaga 0–1 VillarrealLa Liga

The full Malaga vs Villarreal record →

Leading scorers: Malaga and Villarreal

Malaga

GoalsAssists

  • Adrián Niño Heredia40

Villarreal

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Villarreal won 3–1 at Malaga. The model had leaned towards a win for Malaga at 36% and given a win for Villarreal 34%. The goals: Carlos Dotor 12' for Malaga, Alberto Moleiro 40' for Villarreal, Pape Gueye 45+2' for Villarreal, Pape Gueye (penalty) 86' for Villarreal.

How the call on Malaga v Villarreal has moved

First published on 3 Sep at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is Malaga's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Malaga win36%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Villarreal win34%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.