Arouca
vs
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Arouca, 30% draw, 35% Santa Clara — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Arouca 1.25, Santa Clara 1.27.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Arouca vs Santa Clara
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arouca at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arouca vs Santa Clara
Line-ups
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 24B. MansillaF
- 9F. MayuluF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 23D. NandínF
- 77S. ParkF
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 5B. PopovićD
- 1Lucas FrançaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 4Pedro PachecoD
- 21Emanuel FernandesD
- 5Guilherme RomãoD
- 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 20Tiago RibeiroM
- 70Vinícius LopesF
- 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosF
- 22VitinhoM
- 17João VasconcelosM
- 99SorrisoF
- 3Henrique SilvaD
- 12NenecaG
- 73Léo JacóF
- 7Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraF
- 41Daniel BorgesM
- 11Welinton TorrãoF
Form going into Arouca vs Santa Clara
Arouca
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
- W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026
Santa Clara
- W4-0Rio Ave6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
- W1-0Famalicao23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Academico Viseu15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Santa Clara
- 13 September 2026Arouca 1–2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 25 July 2026Santa Clara 3–0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
- 2 May 2026Arouca 2–2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 21 December 2025Santa Clara 0–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 26 April 2025Santa Clara 2–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 15 December 2024Arouca 1–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Arouca and Santa Clara
Arouca
- Barbero4 goals
Santa Clara
- Gonçalo Paciência5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.25 goals for Arouca and 1.27 for Santa Clara; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Gonçalo Paciência 22' (Santa Clara), José Tavares 36' (Santa Clara), Iván Barbero 46' (Arouca).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arouca the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Arouca against 1.27 for Santa Clara. Arouca's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.95 for Santa Clara.