Arouca vs Santa Clara Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Arouca, 31% draw, 34% Santa Clara — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arouca at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arouca vs Santa Clara
Line-ups
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 24B. MansillaF
- 9F. MayuluF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 23D. NandínF
- 77S. ParkF
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 5B. PopovićD
- 1Lucas FrançaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 4Pedro PachecoD
- 21Emanuel FernandesD
- 5Guilherme RomãoD
- 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 20Tiago RibeiroM
- 70Vinícius LopesF
- 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosF
- 22VitinhoM
- 17João VasconcelosM
- 99SorrisoF
- 3Henrique SilvaD
- 12NenecaG
- 73Léo JacóF
- 7Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraF
- 41Daniel BorgesM
- 11Welinton TorrãoF
Form going into Arouca vs Santa Clara
Arouca
Primeira Liga
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga
- W4-0Rio Ave6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Santa Clara
- 25 July 2026Santa Clara 3–0 AroucaFriendlies Clubs
- 2 May 2026Arouca 2–2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 21 December 2025Santa Clara 0–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 26 April 2025Santa Clara 2–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 15 December 2024Arouca 1–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Arouca and Santa Clara
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santa Clara won 2–1 at Arouca. The model had leaned towards a win for Arouca at 35% and given a win for Santa Clara 34%. The goals: Gonçalo Paciência 22' for Santa Clara, José Tavares 36' for Santa Clara, Iván Barbero 46' for Arouca. Sent off: Luiz Fernando Salles De Castro (Santa Clara) 85'.
How the call on Arouca v Santa Clara has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 35% / 31% / 34%: the biggest move is Arouca's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Arouca win35%▼ −3
- Draw31%▲ +2
- Santa Clara win34%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.