23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

RB Bragantino vs Gremio Serie A prediction & result

Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista
Full time1 – 0

Final score: RB Bragantino 1-0 Gremio.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% RB Bragantino, 22% draw, 22% Gremio — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

RB Bragantino at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

RB Bragantino6%Draw91%Gremio3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•José Herrera
15'
Juninho Capixaba
24'
45+3'
Erick Noriega
46'
🔁Teteout: C. Pavon
🔁Eric Ramiresout: Fabinho
64'
🔁J. Herreraout: H. Mosquera
64'
64'
🔁F. Amuzuout: J. Cabral
Agustin Sant Anna
72'
🔁Lucas Barbosaout: Eduardo Sasha
72'
76'
Weverton
86'
Wallace
🔁Rodriguinhoout: Gustavo Neves
86'
🔁Vinicinhoout: Yuri Alves
86'
88'
🔁F. Krovinovicout: Carlos Vinicius
90+2'
🔁E. Noriegaout: Danilo Barbosa
⚽Gustavo Marquesassist: Gustavo Neves
90'

Match stats — RB Bragantino vs Gremio

54%Possession46%
27Shots14
4On target1
8Corners5
2.86xG0.48

Goals against chances

RB Bragantino1 from 2.86 xGless than the chances were worth
Gremio0 from 0.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

RB Bragantino 4-2-3-1
  • 18Tiago VolpiG
  • 23A. Sant'AnnaD
  • 14Pedro HenriqueD
  • 16Gustavo MarquesD
  • 29Juninho CapixabaD
  • 7Eric RamiresM
  • 20RodriguinhoM
  • 32J. HerreraM
  • 21Lucas BarbosaM
  • 17VinicinhoM
  • 9I. PittaF
Substitutes
  • 1CleitonG
  • 2G. RodriguezD
  • 34A. HurtadoD
  • 4Alix ViniciusD
  • 5FabinhoM
  • 15I. SosaM
  • 22Gustavo NevesM
  • 6GabrielM
  • 35Matheus FernandesM
Coach: Mancini Vagner
Gremio 4-1-4-1
  • 1WevertonG
  • 27Diego CaitoD
  • 82WallaceD
  • 3Wagner LeonardoD
  • 23MarlonD
  • 8E. NoriegaM
  • 21TeteM
  • 20M. VillasantiM
  • 10F. KrovinovicM
  • 9F. AmuzuM
  • 22M. BraithwaiteF
Substitutes
  • 12Gabriel GrandoG
  • 14Marcos RochaD
  • 2Fabian BalbuenaD
  • 54Pedro GabrielD
  • 43Luis EduardoD
  • 15Danilo BarbosaM
  • 95Carlos ViniciusF
  • 99J. EnamoradoF
  • 30Matheus NascimentoF
Coach: Luis Castro

Form going into RB Bragantino vs Gremio

RB Bragantino

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Atletico Paranaense15 August 2026
  • L0-2Corinthians9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro29 July 2026
  • D0-0Coritiba26 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Fluminense17 July 2026

Gremio

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
  • W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Botafogo29 July 2026
  • D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026

What these results say

  • RB Bragantino did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for RB Bragantino had two goals or fewer.
  • RB Bragantino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gremio conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gremio failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gremio scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8RB Bragantino34138134439+547
18Gremio34910153847-937

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Gremio

  • 13 March 2026Gremio 1–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
  • 4 October 2025RB Bragantino 1–0 GremioSerie A
  • 10 May 2025Gremio 1–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
  • 15 September 2024RB Bragantino 2–2 GremioSerie A
  • 1 June 2024Gremio 0–2 RB BragantinoSerie A
  • 15 September 2023RB Bragantino 2–0 GremioSerie A

The full RB Bragantino vs Gremio record →

Leading scorers: RB Bragantino and Gremio

RB Bragantino

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

Gremio

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Vinícius111

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

RB Bragantino beat Gremio 1–0. The model had made a win for RB Bragantino its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Gustavo Marques 90' for RB Bragantino. On expected goals it finished 2.86–0.48.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.