Atlanta United FC
vs
Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 57% Atlanta United FC, 22% draw, 21% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atlanta United FC 2.10, Sporting Kansas City 1.21.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atlanta United FC
No earlier matches on record this season.
Sporting Kansas City
- L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026
- L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
- W2-1Minnesota United FC23 July 2026
- L2-3away to St. Louis City17 July 2026
- L1-2New York Red Bulls24 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlanta United FC carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.35 for Sporting Kansas City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Atlanta United FC L-L-D-L-L; Sporting Kansas City L-L-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Atlanta United FC and 1.21 for Sporting Kansas City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlanta United FC rate 0.73 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Kansas City rate 0.55 and 1.52.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlanta United FC the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for Atlanta United FC against 1.21 for Sporting Kansas City. Atlanta United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.52 for Sporting Kansas City.