23 August 2026, 23:00 UTC

Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Atlanta United FC 2-1 Sporting Kansas City.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Atlanta United FC, 19% draw, 19% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atlanta United FC at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atlanta United FC96%Draw4%Sporting Kansas City0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. Jacobassist: M. Almiron
13'
22'
Emir Karić
⚽F. Picaultassist: E. Baez
24'
45+2'
🔁J. Davisout: J. Reynolds
🔁F. Picaultout: W. Reilly
62'
🔁A. Gillout: L. Brennan
62'
62'
🔁E. Karicout: J. Reid
62'
🔁T. Calheiraout: S. Afrifa
70'
⚽S. Afrifa
Luke Brennan
72'
🔁P. Diazout: S. Gregersen
73'
Elías Báez
76'
🔁C. Sanchezout: S. Alzate
77'
🔁out: M. Edwards
78'
87'
🔁Capitaout: J. Bartlett

Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City

49%Possession51%
8Shots8
4On target1
2Corners6
1.8xG0.64

Goals against chances

Atlanta United FC2 from 1.80 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sporting Kansas City1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. HoyosG
  • 55T. JacobD
  • 27P. DiazD
  • 6J. AlonsoD
  • 3E. BaezD
  • 48C. SanchezM
  • 16A. GillM
  • 8T. MuyumbaM
  • 59A. MiranchukF
  • 22F. PicaultF
  • 10M. AlmironF
Substitutes
  • 42J. HibbertG
  • 5S. GregersenD
  • 47M. EdwardsD
  • 2R. HernandezD
  • 4E. MihajD
  • 28W. ReillyM
  • 7S. AlzateM
  • 20L. BrennanM
  • 19Sergio SantosF
Coach: Gerardo Martino
Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 8J. DavisD
  • 3M. MosqueraD
  • 28W. MeyerD
  • 18E. KaricD
  • 7CapitaM
  • 4L. JohnsenM
  • 22Z. BassongM
  • 11C. HarrisM
  • 93S. SuleymanovF
  • 19T. CalheiraF
Substitutes
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 15J. MillerD
  • 57Diego BorgesD
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 16J. BartlettD
  • 13J. ReynoldsD
  • 2I. JamesD
  • 20K. AgyabengM
  • 17S. AfrifaF
Coach: Raphael Wicky

Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City

Atlanta United FC

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Minnesota United FC20 August 2026
  • W2-1New York Red Bulls15 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Philadelphia Union1 August 2026
  • L1-4away to New England Revolution25 July 2026
  • D2-2away to Charlotte23 July 2026

Sporting Kansas City

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1St. Louis City20 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Colorado Rapids16 August 2026
  • L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
  • W2-1Minnesota United FC23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Atlanta United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atlanta United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Atlanta United FC had three goals or more.
  • Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Atlanta United FC3496194360-1733
15Sporting Kansas City3475224081-4126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City

  • 17 February 2024Atlanta United FC 1–3 Sporting Kansas CityFriendlies Clubs
  • 27 February 2022Atlanta United FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 6 May 2019Sporting Kansas City 0–3 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 9 May 2018Atlanta United FC 0–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 7 August 2017Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Atlanta United FC beat Sporting Kansas City 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Atlanta United FC at 62%. The goals: T. Jacob 13' for Atlanta United FC, F. Picault 24' for Atlanta United FC, S. Afrifa 70' for Sporting Kansas City. On expected goals it finished 1.80–0.64.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.