23 August 2026, 20:30 UTC

New England Revolution vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Gillette Stadium, Boston
Full time1 – 1

Final score: New England Revolution 1-1 New York City FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% New England Revolution, 20% draw, 25% New York City FC — fair odds of 1.82, 5.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

New England Revolution at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

New England Revolution7%Draw89%New York City FC4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Carles Gil (pen)
27'
⚽D. Turgemanassist: P. Miller
36'
40'
🔁J. Shoreout: K. Parks
40'
🔁T. Grayout: M. Ilenic
45'
⚽J. Sandsassist: Talles Magno
46'
🔁Talles Magnoout: Luighi
61'
Keaton Parks
🔁J. Yueillout: J. Siqueira
64'
68'
🔁B. Traoreout: K. O'Toole
68'
🔁A. Pereaout: Raul Gustavo
Jack Harrison
69'
🔁M. Polsterout: C. Baker
70'
🔁J. Harrisonout: D. Fagundez
81'
🔁D. Turgemanout: W. Harris
81'

Match stats — New England Revolution vs New York City FC

52%Possession48%
10Shots12
6On target5
6Corners4
2.91xG1.47

Goals against chances

New England Revolution1 from 2.91 xGless than the chances were worth
New York City FC1 from 1.47 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New England Revolution 4-2-3-1
  • 30M. TurnerG
  • 8M. PolsterD
  • 22E. KohlerD
  • 2M. FofanaD
  • 23W. SandsD
  • 14J. YueillM
  • 80A. YusufM
  • 11J. HarrisonM
  • 10C. GilM
  • 25P. MillerM
  • 99D. TurgemanF
Substitutes
  • 33D. ParisianG
  • 88A. FarrellD
  • 4T. BeasonD
  • 15C. BakerD
  • 65J. SiqueiraF
  • 77D. FagundezM
  • 7G. YowF
  • 17M. ZambranoF
  • 27W. HarrisF
Coach: Marko Mitrovic
New York City FC 4-4-2
  • 49M. FreeseG
  • 24T. GrayD
  • 23M. MurrayD
  • 6J. SandsD
  • 2N. CavalloD
  • 26A. OjedaM
  • 32J. ShoreM
  • 8A. PereaM
  • 9B. TraoreM
  • 7N. MercauF
  • 11Talles MagnoF
Substitutes
  • 18G. RanjitsinghG
  • 30T. RomeroG
  • 22K. O'TooleD
  • 34Raul GustavoD
  • 55K. ParksM
  • 35M. IlenicD
  • 15K. PierreM
  • 88M. JonesF
  • 20LuighiF
Coach: Pascal Jansen

Form going into New England Revolution vs New York City FC

New England Revolution

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to DC United19 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Toronto FC15 August 2026
  • L0-2Houston Dynamo8 August 2026
  • D2-2away to CF Montreal1 August 2026
  • W4-1Atlanta United FC25 July 2026

New York City FC

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to FC Cincinnati19 August 2026
  • L2-3Philadelphia Union16 August 2026
  • D1-1Toronto FC31 July 2026
  • W3-1Chicago Fire25 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Columbus Crew22 July 2026

What these results say

  • New England Revolution scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • New England Revolution conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.
  • New York City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • New York City FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for New York City FC.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3New England Revolution34184125547+858
11New York City FC341012124945+442

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs New York City FC

  • 19 April 2025New England Revolution 2–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 March 2025New York City FC 2–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 9 August 2024New England Revolution 1–1 New York City FCLeagues Cup
  • 25 May 2024New England Revolution 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2024New York City FC 2–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 3 June 2023New York City FC 0–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: New England Revolution and New York City FC

New England Revolution

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 55 league goals as a side.

New York City FC

GoalsAssists

  • N. Fernández Mercau166

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

New England Revolution and New York City FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for New England Revolution at 55% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: D. Turgeman 36' for New England Revolution, J. Sands 45' for New York City FC. On expected goals it finished 2.91–1.47.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.