New England Revolution
vs
New York City FC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 44% New England Revolution, 25% draw, 31% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: New England Revolution 1.72, New York City FC 1.41.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Leading scorers
New England Revolution
No league goals recorded yet.
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau13 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New England Revolution carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.55 for New York City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): New England Revolution L-D-W-D-L; New York City FC D-L-W-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for New England Revolution and 1.41 for New York City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New England Revolution rate 0.71 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York City FC rate 0.70 and 1.28.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New England Revolution the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for New England Revolution against 1.41 for New York City FC. New England Revolution's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.28 for New York City FC.