Rangers
vs
Jagiellonia
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 31% Rangers, 20% draw, 49% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 3.23, 5.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Rangers 1.82, Jagiellonia 2.30.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rangers
- L1-2Hibernian9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United31 July 2026
Jagiellonia
- W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rangers | Premiership | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Rangers
No league goals recorded yet.
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec2 goals
- Sergio Lozano1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rangers carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.57 for Jagiellonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rangers D-L; Jagiellonia W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Rangers and 2.30 for Jagiellonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rangers rate 0.66 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jagiellonia rate 0.82 and 1.46.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Rangers against 2.3 for Jagiellonia. Rangers's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.46 for Jagiellonia.