Kilmarnock
vs
St Johnstone
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Kilmarnock 2–1 St Johnstone
The model makes it 38% Kilmarnock, 26% draw, 36% St Johnstone — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.58, St Johnstone 1.55.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Kilmarnock and St Johnstone are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kilmarnock are 11th on 8 points from 9 games; St Johnstone are 5th on 12 points from 9 games — Premiership.
- Kilmarnock have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Motherwell.
- St Johnstone are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Dundee United.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended St Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kilmarnock at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone
Kilmarnock
- W3-2Motherwell17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rangers10 October 2026
- D1-1Heart of Midlothian19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
St Johnstone
- D1-1Dundee United17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Aberdeen11 October 2026
- D1-1Falkirk19 September 2026
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
What these results say
- Kilmarnock scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for St Johnstone had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | St Johnstone | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kilmarnock
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 65% today
St Johnstone
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone
- 2 August 2026St Johnstone 4–3 KilmarnockPremiership
- 3 May 2025St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 15 February 2025Kilmarnock 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 23 November 2024St Johnstone 1–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 11 August 2024Kilmarnock 0–3 St JohnstonePremiership
- 13 April 2024St Johnstone 0–2 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and St Johnstone
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kilmarnock carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.4 for St Johnstone. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.55 for St Johnstone. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kilmarnock rate 0.65 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Johnstone rate 0.58 and 1.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour St Johnstone, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kilmarnock a 0% chance of the title and St Johnstone 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kilmarnock the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kilmarnock against 1.55 for St Johnstone. Kilmarnock's attack/defence rating is 0.65/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.45 for St Johnstone.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kilmarnock at home · St Johnstone away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Kilmarnock 9, St Johnstone 9.
Kilmarnock score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); St Johnstone have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kilmarnock
- at Celtic8 Nov · Premiershipwin 9%
- vs Aberdeen21 Nov · Premiershipwin 40%
- at St Mirren28 Nov · Premiershipwin 36%
St Johnstone
- vs Dundee7 Nov · Premiershipwin 42%
- at Falkirk21 Nov · Premiershipwin 32%
- at Dundee United28 Nov · Premiershipwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.