Motherwell
vs
St Mirren
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Motherwell 2–0 St Mirren
The model makes it 57% Motherwell, 24% draw, 19% St Mirren — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Motherwell 2.00, St Mirren 0.96.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Motherwell: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Motherwell are 10th on 8 points from 9 games; St Mirren are 8th on 10 points from 9 games — Premiership.
- Motherwell have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Kilmarnock.
- St Mirren have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Aberdeen.
- Last 6 meetings: Motherwell 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended St Mirren 3–3 Motherwell.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Motherwell vs St Mirren
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Motherwell at 57% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Motherwell vs St Mirren
Motherwell
- L2-3away to Kilmarnock17 October 2026
- L0-2Celtic11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Dundee19 September 2026
- L0-4Aberdeen15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
St Mirren
- L1-3away to Aberdeen17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Heart of Midlothian10 October 2026
- L0-3Dundee United19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers9 September 2026
- L1-2Celtic5 September 2026
What these results say
- Motherwell did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren did not win any of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for St Mirren had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Motherwell
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
St Mirren
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs St Mirren
- 30 August 2026St Mirren 3–3 MotherwellPremiership
- 21 February 2026St Mirren 0–5 MotherwellPremiership
- 3 January 2026Motherwell 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 1 November 2025Motherwell 1–4 St MirrenLeague Cup
- 9 August 2025St Mirren 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 15 March 2025Motherwell 2–2 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: Motherwell and St Mirren
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry21
St Mirren
GoalsAssists
- K. Phillips30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Motherwell carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.17 for St Mirren. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Motherwell and 0.96 for St Mirren. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motherwell rate 0.66 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Mirren rate 0.46 and 1.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour St Mirren, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Motherwell a 0.1% chance of the title and St Mirren 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motherwell the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Motherwell against 0.96 for St Mirren. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.8 for St Mirren.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Motherwell at home · St Mirren away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Motherwell 9, St Mirren 9.
Motherwell score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); St Mirren have let in 2 there.
St Mirren score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Motherwell have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Motherwell
- at Dundee United7 Nov · Premiershipwin 33%
- vs Rangers21 Nov · Premiershipwin 28%
- vs Hibernian28 Nov · Premiershipwin 45%
St Mirren
- vs Rangers7 Nov · Premiershipwin 18%
- at Celtic21 Nov · Premiershipwin 8%
- vs Kilmarnock28 Nov · Premiershipwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.