Falkirk
vs
Celtic
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Falkirk 1–2 Celtic
The model makes it 21% Falkirk, 23% draw, 56% Celtic — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Falkirk 1.10, Celtic 2.12.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Celtic are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Falkirk are 9th on 9 points from 9 games; Celtic are top on 21 points from 8 games — Premiership.
- Falkirk have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Hibernian.
- Celtic have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Motherwell.
- Last 6 meetings: Celtic 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Celtic 2–1 Falkirk.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Falkirk vs Celtic
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celtic at 56% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Falkirk vs Celtic
Falkirk
- W2-1away to Hibernian17 October 2026
- L1-2Dundee10 October 2026
- D1-1away to St Johnstone19 September 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
Celtic
- W2-0away to Motherwell11 October 2026
- L0-1Rangers20 September 2026
- W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026
- W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
- W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026
What these results say
- Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Falkirk.
- Celtic won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Falkirk | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Falkirk
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
Celtic
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 65% today
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Falkirk vs Celtic
- 29 August 2026Celtic 2–1 FalkirkPremiership
- 25 April 2026Celtic 3–1 FalkirkPremiership
- 1 February 2026Celtic 2–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 14 January 2026Falkirk 0–1 CelticPremiership
- 29 October 2025Celtic 4–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 15 August 2025Celtic 4–1 FalkirkLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Falkirk and Celtic
Falkirk
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán43
- B. Nygren43
- K. Høgh31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Falkirk carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.8 for Celtic. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Falkirk and 2.12 for Celtic. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Falkirk rate 0.62 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celtic rate 0.95 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Falkirk a 0% chance of the title and Celtic 64.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Falkirk against 2.12 for Celtic. Falkirk's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.06 for Celtic.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Falkirk at home · Celtic away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Falkirk 9, Celtic 8.
Falkirk score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Celtic have let in 0 there.
Celtic score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Falkirk have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Falkirk
- at Heart of Midlothian8 Nov · Premiershipwin 16%
- vs St Johnstone21 Nov · Premiershipwin 40%
- at Rangers28 Nov · Premiershipwin 14%
Celtic
- vs Beşiktaş5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.