Celtic
vs
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Celtic 2–1 Heart of Midlothian
The model makes it 48% Celtic, 27% draw, 25% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Celtic 2.07, Heart of Midlothian 1.17.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Celtic are top on 18 points from 7 games; Heart of Midlothian are 3rd on 13 points from 7 games — Premiership.
- Celtic have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rangers.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Kilmarnock.
- Last 6 meetings: Celtic 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Celtic 3–1 Heart of Midlothian.
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celtic at 48% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian
Celtic
- L0-1Rangers20 September 2026
- W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026
- W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
- W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026
- W2-1Falkirk29 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
- W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
What these results say
- Celtic won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celtic vs Heart of Midlothian
- 16 May 2026Celtic 3–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 25 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–2 CelticPremiership
- 7 December 2025Celtic 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 26 October 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 CelticPremiership
- 29 March 2025Celtic 3–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 23 November 2024Heart of Midlothian 1–4 CelticPremiership
Leading scorers: Celtic and Heart of Midlothian
Celtic
- C. Durán3 goals3 assists
- B. Nygren3 goals3 assists
- K. Høgh3 goals
Heart of Midlothian
- J. Wilson3 goals
- J. McPake2 goals4 assists
- Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Celtic carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.6 for Heart of Midlothian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Celtic and 1.17 for Heart of Midlothian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celtic rate 0.95 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heart of Midlothian rate 0.79 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celtic a 56.1% chance of the title and Heart of Midlothian 8.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Celtic against 1.17 for Heart of Midlothian. Celtic's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.3 for Heart of Midlothian.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celtic at home · Heart of Midlothian away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Celtic 7, Heart of Midlothian 7.
Heart of Midlothian score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Celtic have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Celtic
- vs Celta Vigo22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 37%
- at Hibernian25 Oct · Premiershipwin 45%
- vs Dundee United28 Oct · Premiershipwin 62%
Heart of Midlothian
- at Trabzonspor22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 19%
- at Motherwell25 Oct · Premiershipwin 36%
- vs Rangers28 Oct · Premiershipwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.