HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% HNK Hajduk Split, 20% draw, 44% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.78, 5.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa
Line-ups
- 33T. SilicG
- 8N. SigurD
- 15D. MaresicD
- 14R. RaciD
- 32S. HrgovicD
- 4A. PajazitiM
- 21R. PukstasM
- 7A. SanyangM
- 9D. de AlmeidaM
- 23M. SoticekM
- 11M. SegoF
- 1I. IvusicG
- 44D. StipicaG
- 3R. GabricD
- 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
- 10M. LivajaF
- 16A. SutaloM
- 17D. MelnjakD
- 19E. BrrutiM
- 20A. del MoralM
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 7F. TudorD
- 25B. RacovitanD
- 4S. SvarnasD
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 10V. KocherginM
- 26E. OtienoM
- 80L. Diaby-FadigaF
- 11M. EmreliF
- 15O. KwiatkowskiM
- 29W. ZolneczkoG
- 71T. KaricG
- 2J. NapierajM
- 3A. BrorssonD
- 17J. JendrykaM
- 20J. C. SilvaM
- 21T. PienkoM
- 23K. StruskiM
- 39I. BrusbergM
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa
HNK Hajduk Split
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
- W4-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius13 August 2026
- D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026
- W5-2away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius6 August 2026
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
- L2-3Zaglebie Lubin9 August 2026
- D0-0Hammarby FF6 August 2026
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for HNK Hajduk Split had three goals or more.
- HNK Hajduk Split conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: HNL · Ekstraklasa
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assist
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.