Coventry
vs
Crystal Palace
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Coventry 2–1 Crystal Palace
The model makes it 46% Coventry, 25% draw, 29% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Coventry 1.89, Crystal Palace 1.41.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Coventry's rating is built from 10 Premier League matches and Crystal Palace's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Coventry are 17th on 9 points from 10 games; Crystal Palace are bottom on 7 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Coventry have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Everton.
- Crystal Palace are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Liverpool.
- Last 2 meetings: Crystal Palace 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 March 2012, ended Coventry 1–1 Crystal Palace.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Coventry vs Crystal Palace
Has the model earned this number?
Coventry at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Coventry vs Crystal Palace
Coventry
Premier League
- L1-3away to Everton6 November 2026
- W3-1Sunderland31 October 2026
- L0-1Fulham24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Tottenham19 October 2026
- W4-1Newcastle12 October 2026
Crystal Palace
Premier League
- L1-3Liverpool8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Tottenham31 October 2026
- L0-2Newcastle25 October 2026
- L0-5away to Brighton18 October 2026
- W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026
What these results say
- Coventry conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Coventry scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Coventry had three goals or more.
- Crystal Palace conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Coventry
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
Crystal Palace
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 75% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Coventry vs Crystal Palace
- 6 March 2012Coventry 1–1 Crystal PalaceChampionship
- 16 August 2011Crystal Palace 2–1 CoventryChampionship
How the call on Coventry v Crystal Palace has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 46% / 25% / 29%: the biggest move is Coventry's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Coventry win46%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Crystal Palace win29%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Coventry the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Coventry against 1.41 for Crystal Palace. Coventry's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.27 for Crystal Palace.
How the model reaches 46% for Coventry to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Coventry to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Coventry's ratings add 2 points and Crystal Palace's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level42%+1
- Coventry's ratings44%+2
- Crystal Palace's ratings46%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Coventry at home · Crystal Palace away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CoventryCrystal Palace
Coventry are 17th after 10 Premier League matches (between 14th and 20th so far); Crystal Palace are 20th after 10 (between 12th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Coventry 10, Crystal Palace 10.
Coventry score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Crystal Palace have let in 8 there.
Crystal Palace score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Coventry have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Coventry
- at Leeds28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs Ipswich1 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Manchester United5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Aston Villa13 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- at Bournemouth19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
Crystal Palace
- vs Real Sociedad26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 29%
- vs Hull City29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Chelsea2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- at Aston Villa5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- at Jagiellonia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.