Viborg
vs
Aarhus
Superliga prediction
The model makes it 49% Viborg, 23% draw, 28% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Viborg 1.91, Aarhus 1.40.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Viborg
- D0-0away to Sonderjyske7 August 2026
- L0-1away to Brondby2 August 2026
- W1-0Odense24 July 2026
Aarhus
- D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
- D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Viborg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Viborg
- T. Jørgensen1 goals
Aarhus
- Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad2 goals
- J. Jønsson1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Viborg carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.58 for Aarhus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Viborg W-L-D; Aarhus D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Viborg and 1.40 for Aarhus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Viborg rate 0.82 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aarhus rate 0.72 and 1.23.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viborg the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Viborg against 1.4 for Aarhus. Viborg's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.23 for Aarhus.