Al Sadd
vs
Al Shamal
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Sadd 2–1 Al Shamal
The model makes it 57% Al Sadd, 20% draw, 23% Al Shamal — fair odds of 1.75, 5.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Al Sadd 2.88, Al Shamal 1.71.
Both teams to score: 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,453 settled matches.
Edge to Al Sadd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Al Sadd's rating is built from 29 Qatar Stars League matches and Al Shamal's from 28, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 303 matches.
Key facts
- Al Sadd are top on 15 points from 7 games; Al Shamal are 5th on 9 points from 6 games — Stars League.
- Al Sadd have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Al Shahaniya.
- Al Shamal are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Lusail City.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Sadd 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 May 2026, ended Al Shamal 4–6 Al Sadd.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Sadd vs Al Shamal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Sadd at 57% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Sadd vs Al Shamal
Al Sadd
Stars League
- W4-0away to Al Shahaniya22 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Duhail SC18 October 2026
- L2-3Al-Arabi SC9 October 2026
- W6-3away to Al-Sailiya10 September 2026
- W4-1Al-Gharafa5 September 2026
Al Shamal
Stars League
- D0-0away to Lusail City17 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Duhail SC8 October 2026
- D1-1Al Wakrah10 September 2026
- W4-2Al Shahaniya4 September 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Gharafa27 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Sadd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al Sadd had three goals or more.
- Al Sadd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Shamal conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 15 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al Shamal
- 1 May 2026Al Shamal 4–6 Al SaddEmir Cup
- 27 April 2026Al Sadd 3–2 Al ShamalStars League
- 29 December 2025Al Shamal 0–3 Al SaddStars League
- 12 January 2025Al Sadd 1–0 Al ShamalStars League
- 10 August 2024Al Shamal 2–1 Al SaddStars League
- 24 April 2024Al Shamal 0–4 Al SaddStars League
Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al Shamal
Al Sadd
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Firmino54
- Akram Afif44
- Y. Abdurisag32
Al Shamal
GoalsAssists
- B. Bounedjah30
- Moufak Awad20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Sadd carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.35 for Al Shamal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.88 goals for Al Sadd and 1.71 for Al Shamal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Sadd rate 1.04 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Shamal rate 0.58 and 1.57.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Sadd a 29.9% chance of the title and Al Shamal 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Sadd the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Al Sadd against 1.71 for Al Shamal. Al Sadd's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.57 for Al Shamal.
How the model reaches 57% for Al Sadd to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al Sadd to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, Al Sadd's ratings take away 14 points and Al Shamal's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage38%±0
- Al Sadd's ratings24%−14
- Al Shamal's ratings57%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Sadd at home · Al Shamal away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Sadd 7, Al Shamal 6.
Al Shamal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Al Sadd have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al Sadd
- at Al-Rayyan SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 35%
- at Al-Nassr24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 12%
- vs Lusail City27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 50%
Al Shamal
- vs Al-Sailiya20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 53%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.