Al-Duhail SC
vs
Al Wakrah
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Duhail SC 2–1 Al Wakrah
The model makes it 50% Al-Duhail SC, 24% draw, 26% Al Wakrah — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Duhail SC 2.02, Al Wakrah 1.33.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,453 settled matches.
Edge to Al-Duhail SC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Al-Duhail SC's rating is built from 28 Qatar Stars League matches and Al Wakrah's from 28, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 303 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Duhail SC are 4th on 12 points from 6 games; Al Wakrah are 6th on 8 points from 6 games — Stars League.
- Al-Duhail SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to Al Sadd.
- Al Wakrah are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Al Ahli Doha.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Duhail SC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 January 2026, ended Al Wakrah 0–2 Al-Duhail SC.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Duhail SC vs Al Wakrah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Duhail SC at 50% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Duhail SC vs Al Wakrah
Al-Duhail SC
Stars League
- W3-2away to Al Sadd18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al Shamal8 October 2026
- D1-1Al Shahaniya12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Rayyan SC5 September 2026
- D1-1Al-Arabi SC29 August 2026
Al Wakrah
Stars League
- W3-0away to Al Ahli Doha16 October 2026
- W3-2Al-Gharafa8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Shamal10 September 2026
- L0-4away to Lusail City4 September 2026
- L1-2Al-Rayyan SC27 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Duhail SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Duhail SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Duhail SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Wakrah scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Wakrah conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Wakrah had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Duhail SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Wakrah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Duhail SC vs Al Wakrah
- 15 January 2026Al Wakrah 0–2 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 23 August 2025Al-Duhail SC 0–1 Al WakrahStars League
- 7 February 2025Al-Duhail SC 2–0 Al WakrahStars League
- 13 December 2024Al-Duhail SC 3–1 Al WakrahQSL Cup
- 14 September 2024Al Wakrah 0–2 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 10 March 2024Al Wakrah 2–1 Al-Duhail SCStars League
Leading scorers: Al-Duhail SC and Al Wakrah
Al-Duhail SC
GoalsAssists
- Tahsin Jamshid20
Al Wakrah
GoalsAssists
- A. Zouhzouh40
- A. Laïdouni20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Duhail SC carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.39 for Al Wakrah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Al-Duhail SC and 1.33 for Al Wakrah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Duhail SC rate 0.69 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Wakrah rate 0.66 and 1.66.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Duhail SC a 15.9% chance of the title and Al Wakrah 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Duhail SC the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Al-Duhail SC against 1.33 for Al Wakrah. Al-Duhail SC's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.66 for Al Wakrah.
How the model reaches 50% for Al-Duhail SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al-Duhail SC to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, Al-Duhail SC's ratings take away 14 points and Al Wakrah's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage38%±0
- Al-Duhail SC's ratings24%−14
- Al Wakrah's ratings50%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Duhail SC at home · Al Wakrah away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Duhail SC 6, Al Wakrah 6.
Al-Duhail SC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Al Wakrah have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Duhail SC
- at Al-Gharafa20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 54%
- vs Qatar SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 58%
- at Al Ahli Doha3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 53%
Al Wakrah
- at Al Shahaniya20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 52%
- vs Al-Sailiya27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 57%
- vs Al Sadd3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.