Al Wakrah
vs
Al-Arabi SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Wakrah 1–2 Al-Arabi SC
The model makes it 32% Al Wakrah, 26% draw, 42% Al-Arabi SC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al Wakrah 1.47, Al-Arabi SC 1.77.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Wakrah are 9th on 5 points from 5 games; Al-Arabi SC are 4th on 9 points from 5 games — Stars League.
- Al Wakrah have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Al-Gharafa.
- Al-Arabi SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to Al Sadd.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Arabi SC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 January 2026, ended Al Wakrah 0–1 Al-Arabi SC.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Arabi SC at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC
Al Wakrah
- W3-2Al-Gharafa8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Shamal10 September 2026
- L0-4away to Lusail City4 September 2026
- L1-2Al-Rayyan SC27 August 2026
- D2-2Qatar SC20 August 2026
Al-Arabi SC
- W3-2away to Al Sadd9 October 2026
- D0-0Qatar SC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Sailiya3 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC29 August 2026
- D2-2Al Shamal21 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Wakrah conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Wakrah failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Wakrah scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Arabi SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Arabi SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Wakrah | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Wakrah vs Al-Arabi SC
- 7 January 2026Al Wakrah 0–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 2 September 2025Al Wakrah 1–3 Al-Arabi SCQSL Cup
- 15 August 2025Al-Arabi SC 2–2 Al WakrahStars League
- 24 January 2025Al Wakrah 4–3 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 17 August 2024Al-Arabi SC 1–1 Al WakrahStars League
- 5 April 2024Al Wakrah 2–4 Al-Arabi SCStars League
Leading scorers: Al Wakrah and Al-Arabi SC
Al Wakrah
GoalsAssists
- A. Laïdouni20
- Gelson Dala20
Al-Arabi SC
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Sarabia30
- O. Tannane22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Wakrah carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.44 for Al-Arabi SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Al Wakrah and 1.77 for Al-Arabi SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Wakrah rate 0.61 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Arabi SC rate 0.58 and 1.35.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Arabi SC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al Wakrah against 1.77 for Al-Arabi SC. Al Wakrah's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.35 for Al-Arabi SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Wakrah at home · Al-Arabi SC away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Wakrah 5, Al-Arabi SC 5.
Al Wakrah score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Al-Arabi SC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Wakrah
- at Al-Duhail SC6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 23%
- at Al Shahaniya20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Sailiya27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 54%
- vs Al Sadd3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 24%
Al-Arabi SC
- vs Al-Rayyan SC6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 26%
- vs Al Ahli Doha20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 40%
- at Al-Gharafa27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 46%
- at Lusail City3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.