Al Shamal
vs
Qatar SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Shamal 2–1 Qatar SC
The model makes it 45% Al Shamal, 25% draw, 30% Qatar SC — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al Shamal 1.88, Qatar SC 1.43.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Shamal are 5th on 8 points from 5 games; Qatar SC are 11th on 2 points from 5 games — Stars League.
- Al Shamal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Al-Duhail SC.
- Qatar SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Al-Rayyan SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Qatar SC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended Al Shamal 0–2 Qatar SC.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Shamal vs Qatar SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Shamal at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Shamal vs Qatar SC
Al Shamal
- L0-4Al-Duhail SC8 October 2026
- D1-1Al Wakrah10 September 2026
- W4-2Al Shahaniya4 September 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Gharafa27 August 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Arabi SC21 August 2026
Qatar SC
- L0-3Al-Rayyan SC9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Arabi SC12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahli Doha3 September 2026
- L2-6Al Sadd28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Al Wakrah20 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Shamal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Shamal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Shamal had three goals or more.
- Qatar SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Qatar SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al Shamal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Shamal vs Qatar SC
- 13 April 2026Al Shamal 0–2 Qatar SCStars League
- 13 February 2026Al Shamal 2–1 Qatar SCEmir Cup
- 27 September 2025Qatar SC 1–1 Al ShamalStars League
- 30 January 2025Qatar SC 2–1 Al ShamalStars League
- 22 August 2024Al Shamal 0–1 Qatar SCStars League
- 6 April 2024Al Shamal 1–2 Qatar SCStars League
Leading scorers: Al Shamal and Qatar SC
Al Shamal
GoalsAssists
- B. Bounedjah30
- Moufak Awad20
Qatar SC
No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Shamal carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.24 for Qatar SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Al Shamal and 1.43 for Qatar SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Shamal rate 0.62 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qatar SC rate 0.49 and 1.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Shamal the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al Shamal against 1.43 for Qatar SC. Al Shamal's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.69 for Qatar SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Shamal at home · Qatar SC away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Shamal 5, Qatar SC 5.
Al Shamal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Qatar SC have let in 3 there.
Qatar SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Al Shamal have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Shamal
- vs Al-Hilal27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 14%
- at Esteghlal FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
- at Al Sadd6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 24%
- vs Al-Sailiya20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 56%
Qatar SC
- vs Al-Gharafa6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 37%
- at Lusail City20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 25%
- at Al-Duhail SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 20%
- vs Al Shahaniya3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.