Venezia vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Venezia, 28% draw, 37% Fiorentina — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fiorentina at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Venezia vs Fiorentina
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. StankovicG
- 3J. SchingtienneD
- 2M. MorenoD
- 5R. HapsD
- 18A. HainautM
- 71K. PerezM
- 6G. BusioM
- 19S. SohmM
- 20R. SagradoM
- 10J. YeboahF
- 45A. AdamsF
- 96L. MontipoG
- 15Juan JesusD
- 70P. MazzocchiD
- 14T. CorreiaD
- 16R. MohammedD
- 25R. HalhalD
- 95A. GomesD
- 21T. J. HelgasonM
- 55S. PanadaM
- 43D. de GeaG
- 20A. JimenezD
- 3R. DragusinD
- 6L. RanieriD
- 33VieryD
- 27C. NdourM
- 44N. FagioliM
- 30F. MastantuonoM
- 14A. AttaM
- 25A. NjieM
- 23BetoF
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 5M. PongracicD
- 2DodoD
- 17Joao MarioD
- 21V. ValdepenasD
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 42C. Inao OulaiM
- 28PoteM
Form going into Venezia vs Fiorentina
Venezia
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
- L0-2away to AC Milan28 August 2026
- L0-2Lecce23 August 2026
Fiorentina
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
- L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
- L0-4away to AS Roma24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Venezia | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 3 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Venezia vs Fiorentina
- 12 May 2025Venezia 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 25 August 2024Fiorentina 0–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 16 April 2022Fiorentina 1–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 18 October 2021Venezia 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A
The result against the call
Fiorentina won 4–2 at Venezia. The model had made a win for Fiorentina its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Adams 22' for Venezia, F. Mastantuono 29' for Fiorentina, F. Mastantuono 30' for Fiorentina, M. Pellegrino 66' for Fiorentina, F. Mastantuono 84' for Fiorentina, A. Hainaut 86' for Venezia. On expected goals it finished 0.71–3.35.
How the call on Venezia v Fiorentina has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Fiorentina's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Venezia win35%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Fiorentina win37%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.