11 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Venezia vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Venezia, 28% draw, 37% Fiorentina — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fiorentina at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Venezia0%Draw1%Fiorentina99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Adamsassist: G. Busio
22'
29'
⚽F. Mastantuonoassist: A. Jimenez
30'
⚽F. Mastantuonoassist: Beto
Joel Schingtienne
38'
🔁G. Busioout: T. J. Helgason
44'
60'
🔁A. Attaout: W. Gnonto
60'
🔁Betoout: M. Pellegrino
66'
⚽M. Pellegrinoassist: N. Fagioli
🔁M. Morenoout: Juan Jesus
69'
🔁R. Sagradoout: T. Correia
69'
72'
Alieu Njie
Simon Sohm
73'
🔁S. Sohmout: L. Lauberbach
80'
🔁J. Yeboahout: T. Fernandez
80'
80'
🔁A. Njieout: Pote
84'
⚽F. Mastantuono
⚽A. Hainautassist: R. Haps
86'
89'
🔁L. Ranieriout: M. Pongracic
89'
🔁F. Mastantuonoout: M. Brescianini

Match stats — Venezia vs Fiorentina

63%Possession37%
11Shots19
4On target10
2Corners4
0.71xG3.35

Goals against chances

Venezia2 from 0.71 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fiorentina4 from 3.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Venezia 3-5-2
  • 1F. StankovicG
  • 3J. SchingtienneD
  • 2M. MorenoD
  • 5R. HapsD
  • 18A. HainautM
  • 71K. PerezM
  • 6G. BusioM
  • 19S. SohmM
  • 20R. SagradoM
  • 10J. YeboahF
  • 45A. AdamsF
Substitutes
  • 96L. MontipoG
  • 15Juan JesusD
  • 70P. MazzocchiD
  • 14T. CorreiaD
  • 16R. MohammedD
  • 25R. HalhalD
  • 95A. GomesD
  • 21T. J. HelgasonM
  • 55S. PanadaM
Coach: Giovanni Stroppa
Fiorentina 4-2-3-1
  • 43D. de GeaG
  • 20A. JimenezD
  • 3R. DragusinD
  • 6L. RanieriD
  • 33VieryD
  • 27C. NdourM
  • 44N. FagioliM
  • 30F. MastantuonoM
  • 14A. AttaM
  • 25A. NjieM
  • 23BetoF
Substitutes
  • 19L. LezzeriniG
  • 53O. ChristensenG
  • 5M. PongracicD
  • 2DodoD
  • 17Joao MarioD
  • 21V. ValdepenasD
  • 4M. BrescianiniM
  • 42C. Inao OulaiM
  • 28PoteM
Coach: Paolo Vanoli

Form going into Venezia vs Fiorentina

Venezia

  • L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to AC Milan28 August 2026
  • L0-2Lecce23 August 2026

Fiorentina

  • L1-2Torino5 September 2026
  • L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
  • L0-4away to AS Roma24 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Venezia4004411-70
15Fiorentina4103511-63

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Venezia vs Fiorentina

  • 11 September 2026Venezia 2–4 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 12 May 2025Venezia 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 25 August 2024Fiorentina 0–0 VeneziaSerie A
  • 16 April 2022Fiorentina 1–0 VeneziaSerie A
  • 18 October 2021Venezia 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A

Leading scorers: Venezia and Fiorentina

Venezia

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Fiorentina

  • Franco Mastantuono3 goals
  • Mateo Pellegrino2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.