Pumas UNAM
vs
Tigres UANL
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Pumas UNAM 2–1 Tigres UANL
The model makes it 43% Pumas UNAM, 27% draw, 30% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pumas UNAM 1.63, Tigres UANL 1.27.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Pumas UNAM are 12th on 13 points from 11 games; Tigres UANL are 13th on 13 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Pumas UNAM are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Cruz Azul.
- Tigres UANL have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Toluca.
- Last 6 meetings: Tigres UANL 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 January 2026, ended Tigres UANL 0–1 Pumas UNAM.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pumas UNAM at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL
Pumas UNAM
- D3-3Cruz Azul12 October 2026
- L2-3Atletico San Luis27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
Tigres UANL
- W3-2Toluca10 October 2026
- W1-0Puebla27 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Juarez19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Monterrey13 September 2026
- D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pumas UNAM
Chance to finish in the bottom three
Tigres UANL
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL
- 15 January 2026Tigres UANL 0–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 21 September 2025Pumas UNAM 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 20 April 2025Tigres UANL 2–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 1 September 2024Pumas UNAM 1–3 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 4 February 2024Tigres UANL 2–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 11 December 2023Tigres UANL 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Tigres UANL
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho61
- R. Morales33
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta64
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pumas UNAM carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.65 for Tigres UANL. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.27 for Tigres UANL. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pumas UNAM rate 0.84 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tigres UANL rate 0.75 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pumas UNAM a 0.1% chance of the title and Tigres UANL 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pumas UNAM the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Pumas UNAM against 1.27 for Tigres UANL. Pumas UNAM's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.12 for Tigres UANL.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pumas UNAM at home · Tigres UANL away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Pumas UNAMTigres UANL
Pumas UNAM are 12th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Tigres UANL are 11th after 11 (between 11th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Pumas UNAM 11, Tigres UANL 11.
Tigres UANL score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Pumas UNAM have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Pumas UNAM
- at Puebla31 Oct · Liga MXwin 38%
- vs Club America8 Nov · Liga MXwin 40%
- vs Monterrey22 Nov · Liga MXwin 49%
Tigres UANL
- at CF Pachuca31 Oct · Liga MXwin 28%
- vs Cruz Azul7 Nov · Liga MXwin 43%
- vs Club America22 Nov · Liga MXwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.