Atlas
vs
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atlas 2–1 Pumas UNAM
The model makes it 38% Atlas, 29% draw, 33% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atlas 1.49, Pumas UNAM 1.32.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atlas vs Pumas UNAM
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Atlas wins, grey are draws, red are Pumas UNAM wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlas at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlas vs Pumas UNAM
Atlas
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
Pumas UNAM
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
- D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Pumas UNAM
- 8 February 2026Atlas 2–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 31 August 2025Pumas UNAM 1–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 26 January 2025Pumas UNAM 0–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 25 August 2024Atlas 2–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 15 February 2024Atlas 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 5 November 2023Pumas UNAM 3–0 AtlasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and Pumas UNAM
Atlas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlas carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.55 for Pumas UNAM. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Atlas and 1.32 for Pumas UNAM. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlas rate 0.71 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pumas UNAM rate 0.70 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atlas a 1.4% chance of the title and Pumas UNAM 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlas the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Atlas against 1.32 for Pumas UNAM. Atlas's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.29 for Pumas UNAM.