Atlas vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 1-1 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Atlas, 29% draw, 35% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlas at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Pumas UNAM
Line-ups
- 12C. VargasG
- 19A. FriasD
- 28M. CapassoD
- 44J. SanchezD
- 3J. SanchezM
- 18E. MontielM
- 15P. RamirezM
- 23S. HernandezM
- 11DukF
- 10L. EstevesF
- 9F. MonzonF
- 22A. SanchezG
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 5J. RodriguezD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 20K. ZenonM
- 6E. ZaldivarM
- 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
- 192J. SerratoM
- 58A. GonzalezF
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LopezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 34A. AzuajeD
- 77A. AnguloD
- 21U. AntunaM
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 14L. HerreraM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 23JuninhoF
- 35P. LaraG
- 5R. DuarteD
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 19J. RivasD
- 24T. LeoneD
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 15I. LunaM
- 20S. TrigosM
- 22A. MedinaF
Form going into Atlas vs Pumas UNAM
Atlas
All competitions we cover
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
- D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
What these results say
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Atlas.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Pumas UNAM
- 8 February 2026Atlas 2–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 31 August 2025Pumas UNAM 1–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 26 January 2025Pumas UNAM 0–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 25 August 2024Atlas 2–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 15 February 2024Atlas 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 5 November 2023Pumas UNAM 3–0 AtlasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and Pumas UNAM
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- Luís Esteves53
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho81
- R. Morales44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlas and Pumas UNAM drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlas at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ángel Azuaje 23' for Pumas UNAM, Luís André Leite Esteves 45+6' for Atlas. Sent off: Adalberto Carrasquilla (Pumas UNAM) 87'.
How the call on Atlas v Pumas UNAM has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Pumas UNAM's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Atlas win36%▼ −5
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Pumas UNAM win35%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.