PSV Eindhoven
vs
Willem II
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: PSV Eindhoven 4–0 Willem II
The model makes it 88% PSV Eindhoven, 8% draw, 4% Willem II — fair odds of 1.14, 12.50 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-0 (9%).
Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 4.49, Willem II 0.79.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%, under 2.5: 11%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: PSV Eindhoven are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- PSV Eindhoven are 3rd on 19 points from 9 games; Willem II are bottom on 2 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to ADO Den Haag.
- Willem II have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Utrecht.
- Last 6 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 February 2025, ended PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Willem II.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 88% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
PSV Eindhoven
- L1-2away to ADO Den Haag17 October 2026
- W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026
- L2-3away to Twente20 September 2026
- W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
Willem II
- L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026
- L0-1Fortuna Sittard19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
What these results say
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PSV Eindhoven had three goals or more.
- Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | +15 | 19 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
PSV Eindhoven
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 31% today
Willem II
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 91% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
- 8 February 2025PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 28 September 2024Willem II 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 1 May 2022PSV Eindhoven 4–2 Willem IIEredivisie
- 25 September 2021Willem II 2–1 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 9 May 2021Willem II 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 8 November 2020PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Willem IIEredivisie
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Willem II
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- G. Til50
- S. Mijnans41
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
PSV Eindhoven carry a model rating of 7.09 against 6.32 for Willem II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 4.49 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.79 for Willem II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PSV Eindhoven rate 1.48 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Willem II rate 0.57 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PSV Eindhoven a 31.2% chance of the title and Willem II 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 88%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 4.49 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven against 0.79 for Willem II. PSV Eindhoven's attack/defence rating is 1.48/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.65 for Willem II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PSV Eindhoven at home · Willem II away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: PSV Eindhoven 9, Willem II 8.
PSV Eindhoven score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Willem II have let in 5 there.
Willem II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); PSV Eindhoven have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
PSV Eindhoven
- vs Club Brugge KV4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 39%
- at Cambuur8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 68%
- at NEC Nijmegen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 53%
Willem II
- vs PEC Zwolle6 Nov · Eredivisiewin 39%
- at Twente22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 8%
- at Groningen27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.