Ajax
vs
Willem II
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Ajax 2–0 Willem II
The model makes it 51% Ajax, 27% draw, 22% Willem II — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Ajax 2.01, Willem II 0.91.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ajax vs Willem II
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Ajax wins, grey are draws, red are Willem II wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ajax vs Willem II
Ajax
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen16 August 2026
- W2-0away to PEC Zwolle9 August 2026
Willem II
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
- L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
- L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 10 |
| 17 | Willem II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs Willem II
- 13 April 2025Willem II 1–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 27 October 2024Ajax 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 19 February 2022Willem II 0–1 AjaxEredivisie
- 2 December 2021Ajax 5–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 28 January 2021Ajax 3–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 23 December 2020Willem II 1–1 AjaxEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and Willem II
Ajax
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Willem II
- D. Haen3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ajax carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.55 for Willem II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Ajax and 0.91 for Willem II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ajax rate 0.95 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Willem II rate 0.71 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ajax a 6.2% chance of the title and Willem II 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Ajax against 0.91 for Willem II. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.3 for Willem II.