15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Ajax vs Willem II Eredivisie prediction & result

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Ajax 5-1 Willem II.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Ajax, 27% draw, 22% Willem II — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ajax at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ajax99%Draw1%Willem II0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Davy Klaassenassist: Kasper Dolberg
41'
⚽Julian Brandtassist: Lucas Oliveira·Rosa
45'
45'
🔁Per van Loonout: Alessandro Ciranni
45'
🔁Tonny Vilhenaout: Mats Lemmens
🔁Steven Berghuisout: Viktor Tsygankov
57'
🔁Davy Klaassenout: Sofyan Amrabat
57'
61'
🔁Hidde ter Avestout: A. Et-Taibi
🔁Owen Wijndalout: Caio Henrique
67'
🔁Julian Brandtout: Abdellah Ouazane
67'
⚽Viktor Tsygankovassist: Oscar Gloukh
69'
70'
🔁Jaden Sloryout: Chido Obi
⚽Oscar Gloukhassist: Kasper Dolberg
74'
76'
⚽Alessandro Ciranniassist: Uriël van Aalst
🔁Thilo Kehrerout: Dies Janse
77'
84'
🔁Maxim Dekkerout: Eser Gürbüz
⚽Kasper Dolberg
87'

Match stats — Ajax vs Willem II

70%Possession30%
33Shots10
12On target4
14Corners2

Line-ups

Ajax 4-3-3
  • 26M. PaesG
  • 2Lucas RosaD
  • 6T. KehrerD
  • 15Y. BaasD
  • 5O. WijndalD
  • 18D. KlaassenM
  • 24J. MokioM
  • 8J. BrandtM
  • 23S. BerghuisF
  • 9K. DolbergF
  • 10O. GloukhF
Substitutes
  • 99T. ArokodareF
  • 1M. ter StegenG
  • 20O. EdvardsenF
  • 3A. GaaeiD
  • 36D. JanseD
  • 12Caio HenriqueD
  • 68A. OuazaneM
  • 38Marcos LeonardoF
  • 51C. SetfordG
Coach: Míchel
Willem II 4-2-3-1
  • 26M. DelangheG
  • 5H. ter AvestD
  • 3F. StamD
  • 23M. DekkerD
  • 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
  • 6C. TwigtM
  • 52T. VilhenaM
  • 22Per van LoonM
  • 19Uriel van AalstM
  • 7J. SloryM
  • 9D. HaenF
Substitutes
  • 83M. LemmensD
  • 2A. CiranniD
  • 15A. Et-TaïbiD
  • 50E. GürbüzF
  • 14Jens MathijsenD
  • 17O. MartinF
  • 10J. SchuurmanM
  • 28T. VerheydtF
  • 18Anass ZarroukM
Coach: J. Stegeman

Form going into Ajax vs Willem II

Ajax

All competitions we cover

  • W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
  • L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
  • W5-3FC Sion27 August 2026
  • W4-2away to FC Sion20 August 2026

Willem II

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
  • L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
  • D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
  • L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
  • L1-4away to GO Ahead Eagles8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
  • Ajax won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Willem II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Ajax106312913+1621
18Willem II100281032-222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ajax vs Willem II

  • 13 April 2025Willem II 1–2 AjaxEredivisie
  • 27 October 2024Ajax 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 19 February 2022Willem II 0–1 AjaxEredivisie
  • 2 December 2021Ajax 5–0 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 28 January 2021Ajax 3–1 Willem IIEredivisie

The full Ajax vs Willem II record →

Leading scorers: Ajax and Willem II

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brandt62
  • T. Arokodare51

Willem II

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ajax beat Willem II 5–1. The model had made a win for Ajax its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Davy Klaassen 41' for Ajax, Julian Brandt 45' for Ajax, Viktor Tsygankov 69' for Ajax, Oscar Gloukh 74' for Ajax, Alessandro Ciranni 76' for Willem II, Kasper Dolberg 87' for Ajax.

How the call on Ajax v Willem II has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Ajax's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Ajax win51%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Willem II win22%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.