PEC Zwolle
vs
Feyenoord
Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PEC Zwolle 0-7 Feyenoord.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% PEC Zwolle, 29% draw, 43% Feyenoord — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.09, Feyenoord 1.60.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Feyenoord at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord
Line-ups
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 3O. AertssenD
- 28S. GravesD
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 33D. van der HaarD
- 34N. FichtingerM
- 8T. SommerM
- 11D. MbayoM
- 18O. VelanasM
- 22I. CissokoM
- 10K. KostonsF
- 41D. VerduinG
- 4T. VelthuisD
- 17S. van HooijdonkF
- 9E. SørensenF
- 42Dylan RuwardD
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
- 25T. OostingM
- 16T. de GraaffG
- 1T. ErnstG
- 26G. ReadD
- 4T. WatanabeD
- 6J. St. JusteD
- 35Mika MàrmolD
- 8G. ZechiëlM
- 34C. VanhoutteM
- 23A. Hadj-MoussaM
- 10L. ValenteM
- 28O. TarghallineM
- 19Nacho FerriF
- 20M. DeijlD
- 27G. DiarraF
- 33F. KastenmeierG
- 24T. KraaijeveldM
- 16Javi LópezD
- 14S. SteijnM
- 22T. van den ElshoutM
- 39L. BossinG
- 57Jerayno SchakenM
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord
PEC Zwolle
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Heerenveen22 August 2026
- L1-3away to Twente16 August 2026
Feyenoord
- W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen5 September 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag30 August 2026
- W5-2away to Cambuur23 August 2026
- D2-2GO Ahead Eagles16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord
- 13 September 2026PEC Zwolle 0–7 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 17 May 2026PEC Zwolle 0–2 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 6 December 2025Feyenoord 6–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 25 April 2025Feyenoord 4–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 18 August 2024PEC Zwolle 1–5 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 5 May 2024Feyenoord 5–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Feyenoord
- G. Zechiël5 goals3 assists
- L. Valente3 goals1 assists
- A. Hadj-Moussa3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.09 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.60 for Feyenoord; the game produced 0 and 7.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Simon Graves Jensen 18' (Feyenoord), Nacho Ferri 23' (Feyenoord), Gjivai Zechiel 40' (Feyenoord), Nacho Ferri 49' (Feyenoord), Anis Hadj Moussa 63' (Feyenoord), Jivayno Zinhagel 69' (Feyenoord), Anis Hadj Moussa 77' (Feyenoord).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for PEC Zwolle against 1.6 for Feyenoord. PEC Zwolle's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.92 for Feyenoord.