Le Mans vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Mans 2-2 Lens.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Le Mans, 29% draw, 33% Lens — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Mans at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Mans vs Lens
Line-ups
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 15N. BoisséD
- 17S. YohouD
- 5H. VoyerD
- 29L. BretelleM
- 26R. BambaM
- 11A. BourabaaM
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 22L. CalodatM
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 13H. DialloF
- 98N. KocikG
- 76Y. LarouciD
- 8A. LaurayM
- 9A. RabillardF
- 19D. SidibéD
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
- 23D. TraoréM
- 40R. RisserG
- 24J. GraditD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 14M. UdolD
- 2R. AguilarM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 5A. BulatovićM
- 22M. SkóraśM
- 19A. SimaM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 4N. ÄelikD
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 9T. HazardM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 28J. KadileF
- 38Mezian MesloubM
- 7F. SotocaF
- 20J. TodiboD
Form going into Le Mans vs Lens
Le Mans
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
- D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026
Lens
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Slavia Praha10 September 2026
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
- W5-2Auxerre22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lens conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lens scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Lens had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
| 7 | Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Mans vs Lens
- 27 July 2019Le Mans 1–2 LensLigue 2
- 24 May 2013Le Mans 2–1 LensLigue 2
- 28 July 2012Lens 2–2 Le MansLigue 2
- 6 April 2012Lens 1–3 Le MansLigue 2
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Lens
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin47
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Le Mans and Lens drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Le Mans at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Adil Bourabaa 32' for Le Mans, Lucas Calodat 44' for Le Mans, Abdallah Sima 45+2' for Lens, Franjo Ivanovic 51' for Lens.
How the call on Le Mans v Lens has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Lens's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Le Mans win38%▲ +1
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Lens win33%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.