Le Mans
vs
Lens
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Mans 2-2 Lens.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Le Mans, 28% draw, 32% Lens — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Le Mans 1.66, Lens 1.32.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Le Mans vs Lens
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Mans at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Mans vs Lens
Line-ups
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 15N. BoisséD
- 17S. YohouD
- 5H. VoyerD
- 29L. BretelleM
- 26R. BambaM
- 11A. BourabaaM
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 22L. CalodatM
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 13H. DialloF
- 98N. KocikG
- 76Y. LarouciD
- 8A. LaurayM
- 9A. RabillardF
- 19D. SidibéD
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
- 23D. TraoréM
- 40R. RisserG
- 24J. GraditD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 14M. UdolD
- 2R. AguilarM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 5A. BulatovićM
- 22M. SkóraśM
- 19A. SimaM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 4N. ÄelikD
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 9T. HazardM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 28J. KadileF
- 38Mezian MesloubM
- 7F. SotocaF
- 20J. TodiboD
Form going into Le Mans vs Lens
Le Mans
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
- D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026
Lens
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
- W5-2Auxerre22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Le Mans | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Mans vs Lens
- 13 September 2026Le Mans 2–2 LensLigue 1
- 27 July 2019Le Mans 1–2 LensLigue 2
- 24 May 2013Le Mans 2–1 LensLigue 2
- 28 July 2012Lens 2–2 Le MansLigue 2
- 6 April 2012Lens 1–3 Le MansLigue 2
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Lens
Le Mans
- L. Mafouta3 goals1 assists
- A. Bourabaa2 goals2 assists
- L. Calodat1 goals1 assists
Lens
- F. Thauvin3 goals1 assists
- F. Ivanović2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.66 goals for Le Mans and 1.32 for Lens; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Adil Bourabaa 32' (Le Mans), Lucas Calodat 44' (Le Mans), Abdallah Sima 45' (Lens), Franjo Ivanovic 51' (Lens).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Mans the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Le Mans against 1.32 for Lens. Le Mans's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.97 for Lens.