Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Stade Brestois 29, 28% draw, 32% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Brestois 29 at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
Line-ups
- 1E. SelvikG
- 70K. LalaD
- 71R. Le GuenD
- 4G. LlorisD
- 2B. LockoD
- 13J. ChotardM
- 8H. MagnettiM
- 10G. VersiniM
- 23K. DoumbiaM
- 9P. MboupM
- 19L. AjorqueF
- 20L. ZogbeD
- 29L. TousartM
- 30M. PatouilletG
- 7J. Nonge BoendeM
- 39D. N´GuessanF
- 33Enzo MonchatreF
- 32L. C. Laine M.M
- 21Ibrahim Yayiya KanteF
- 18J. BourgaultD
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 25Nuno MendesD
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryM
- 17VitinhaM
- 87João NevesM
- 10O. DembéléF
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 12L. DigneD
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 11M. AklioucheM
- 14D. DouéF
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 21L. HernándezD
- 4BeraldoD
- 8Fabián RuizM
Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
Stade Brestois 29
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Le Havre5 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Le Mans22 August 2026
Paris Saint Germain
All competitions we cover
- W6-1Slovan Bratislava9 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
- D2-2Rennes23 August 2026
What these results say
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
- 10 May 2026Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 25 October 2025Stade Brestois 29 0–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 19 February 2025Paris Saint Germain 7–0 Stade Brestois 29UEFA Champions League
- 11 February 2025Stade Brestois 29 0–3 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
- 1 February 2025Stade Brestois 29 2–5 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- K. Doumbia41
- L. Ajorque31
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- Marquinhos30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Paris Saint Germain won 1–0 at Stade Brestois 29. The model had leaned towards a win for Stade Brestois 29 at 40% and given a win for Paris Saint Germain 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Ferrán Torres 5' for Paris Saint Germain.
How the call on Stade Brestois 29 v Paris Saint Germain has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Stade Brestois 29's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Stade Brestois 29 win40%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Paris Saint Germain win32%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.