Stade Brestois 29
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Stade Brestois 29, 29% draw, 31% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.59, Paris Saint Germain 1.28.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Brestois 29 at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
Line-ups
- 1E. SelvikG
- 70K. LalaD
- 71R. Le GuenD
- 4G. LlorisD
- 2B. LockoD
- 13J. ChotardM
- 8H. MagnettiM
- 10G. VersiniM
- 23K. DoumbiaM
- 9P. MboupM
- 19L. AjorqueF
- 20L. ZogbeD
- 29L. TousartM
- 30M. PatouilletG
- 7J. Nonge BoendeM
- 39D. N´GuessanF
- 33Enzo MonchatreF
- 32L. C. Laine M.M
- 21Ibrahim Yayiya KanteF
- 18J. BourgaultD
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 25Nuno MendesD
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryM
- 17VitinhaM
- 87João NevesM
- 10O. DembéléF
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 12L. DigneD
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 11M. AklioucheM
- 14D. DouéF
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 21L. HernándezD
- 4BeraldoD
- 8Fabián RuizM
Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
Stade Brestois 29
- W2-1away to Le Havre5 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Le Mans22 August 2026
Paris Saint Germain
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Rennes23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
- 13 September 2026Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 10 May 2026Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 25 October 2025Stade Brestois 29 0–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 19 February 2025Paris Saint Germain 7–0 Stade Brestois 29UEFA Champions League
- 11 February 2025Stade Brestois 29 0–3 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
- 1 February 2025Stade Brestois 29 2–5 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain
Stade Brestois 29
- K. Doumbia4 goals1 assists
Paris Saint Germain
- Ferran Torres3 goals
- Marquinhos2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.59 goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.28 for Paris Saint Germain; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ferrán Torres 5' (Paris Saint Germain).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Brestois 29 the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.28 for Paris Saint Germain. Stade Brestois 29's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.95 for Paris Saint Germain.