9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Eredivisie prediction & result

Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Referee: Joey Kooij
Full time2 – 0

Final score: PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Heerenveen.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% PSV Eindhoven, 18% draw, 15% Heerenveen — fair odds of 1.49, 5.56 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PSV Eindhoven at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Guus Til
29'
Armando Obispo
42'
60'
marcus linday
64'
🔁Maxence Riveraout: Marko Farji
64'
🔁Levi Smansout: Ringo Meerveld
🔁Esmir Bajraktarevićout: Ivan Perišić
65'
🔁Noah Fernandezout: Filip Kostić
65'
🔁Armando Obispoout: Yarek Gasiorowski
65'
⚽marcus linday (OG)
68'
74'
Sam Kersten
75'
🔁Oliver Johansen Braudeout: Mats Egbring
75'
🔁Dylan Venteout: Lanroy Machine
🔁Mauro Júniorout: Shuryjano Cornecion
82'
🔁Ruben van Bommelout: Ayoni Santos
83'
83'
🔁Nolhan courtensout: Luca Oyen

Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen

55%Possession45%
16Shots12
2On target5
4Corners6
1.64xG1.58

Goals against chances

PSV Eindhoven2 from 1.64 xGabout what the chances were worth
Heerenveen0 from 1.58 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven 4-2-3-1
  • 32M. KovářG
  • 8S. DestD
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 17Mauro JúniorD
  • 24K. SanoM
  • 31N. FernandezM
  • 19E. BajraktarevicM
  • 20G. TilM
  • 7R. van BommelM
  • 21S. MijnansF
Substitutes
  • 37A. BouhamdiF
  • 23M. HansenF
  • 42S. CornecionM
  • 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
  • 2L. GeertruidaD
  • 18F. KostićM
  • 27D. ManF
  • 41Khadim NgomG
  • 1N. OlijG
Coach: P. Bosz
Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
  • 22B. KlaverboerG
  • 45O. BraudeD
  • 4S. KerstenD
  • 3M. WillemsenD
  • 19V. ZagaritisD
  • 16M. LindayM
  • 36N. CourtensM
  • 20J. TrenskowM
  • 14L. SmansM
  • 7M. RiveraM
  • 9D. VenteF
Substitutes
  • 15M. EgbringD
  • 21M. FarjiF
  • 2M. HilgersD
  • 29L. MachineF
  • 10R. MeerveldM
  • 44A. NoppertG
  • 11L. OyenF
  • 28H. PetrovD
  • 41J. ScholtenD
Coach: R. Veldeman

Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen

PSV Eindhoven

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Twente20 September 2026
  • W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
  • D1-1Shakhtar Donetsk10 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
  • W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026

Heerenveen

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0away to Sparta Rotterdam19 September 2026
  • D0-0Telstar13 September 2026
  • L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
  • L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026

What these results say

  • PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • PSV Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for PSV Eindhoven.
  • Heerenveen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1PSV Eindhoven128224015+2526
6Heerenveen126332416+821

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen

  • 21 February 2026PSV Eindhoven 3–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 4 February 2026PSV Eindhoven 4–1 HeerenveenKNVB Beker
  • 6 December 2025Heerenveen 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 8 March 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 14 December 2024Heerenveen 1–0 PSV EindhovenEredivisie

The full PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen record →

Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen

PSV Eindhoven

GoalsAssists

  • S. Mijnans92
  • G. Til71

Heerenveen

GoalsAssists

  • J. Trenskow63
  • R. Meerveld51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

PSV Eindhoven beat Heerenveen 2–0. The model had made a win for PSV Eindhoven its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Guus Til 29' for PSV Eindhoven, marcus linday (own goal) 68' for PSV Eindhoven. On expected goals it finished 1.64–1.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave PSV Eindhoven a 44.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 46.3% after a win, 38.4% after a draw, 34.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.3%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 59% / 22% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 67% / 18% / 15%: the biggest move is PSV Eindhoven's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. PSV Eindhoven win67%▲ +8
  2. Draw18%▼ −4
  3. Heerenveen win15%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.