PSV Eindhoven
vs
Heerenveen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Heerenveen
The model makes it 59% PSV Eindhoven, 22% draw, 19% Heerenveen — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.90, Heerenveen 1.15.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 59% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
- L2-3away to Twente20 September 2026
- W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
- W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
Heerenveen
- W4-0away to Sparta Rotterdam19 September 2026
- D0-0Telstar13 September 2026
- L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
- L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
What these results say
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for PSV Eindhoven had three goals or more.
- Heerenveen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 16 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
- 21 February 2026PSV Eindhoven 3–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 4 February 2026PSV Eindhoven 4–1 HeerenveenKNVB Beker
- 6 December 2025Heerenveen 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 8 March 2025PSV Eindhoven 2–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 14 December 2024Heerenveen 1–0 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 25 April 2024Heerenveen 0–8 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
- S. Mijnans4 goals1 assists
- G. Til4 goals
Heerenveen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
PSV Eindhoven carry a model rating of 7.07 against 6.71 for Heerenveen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.90 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.15 for Heerenveen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PSV Eindhoven rate 1.46 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heerenveen rate 0.81 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PSV Eindhoven a 45.5% chance of the title and Heerenveen 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.9 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven against 1.15 for Heerenveen. PSV Eindhoven's attack/defence rating is 1.46/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.08 for Heerenveen.