Roda
vs
Jong PSV U21
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Roda 1–0 Jong PSV U21
The model makes it 43% Roda, 32% draw, 25% Jong PSV U21 — fair odds of 2.33, 3.13 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Roda 1.29, Jong PSV U21 0.75.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Roda are 5th on 15 points from 8 games; Jong PSV U21 are 12th on 12 points from 9 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Roda are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Waalwijk.
- Jong PSV U21 are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Vitesse.
- Last 6 meetings: Roda 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended Roda 0–2 Jong PSV U21.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Roda vs Jong PSV U21
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Roda at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Roda vs Jong PSV U21
Roda
- W2-0Waalwijk26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jong Ajax18 September 2026
- W1-0Vitesse12 September 2026
- D1-1away to MVV6 September 2026
- D2-2NAC Breda28 August 2026
Jong PSV U21
- L1-3away to Vitesse19 September 2026
- D1-1Jong AZ14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Helmond Sport11 September 2026
- W3-1Den Bosch7 September 2026
- D1-1Jong Ajax31 August 2026
What these results say
- Roda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Roda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Roda had two goals or fewer.
- Jong PSV U21 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Jong PSV U21.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Roda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Roda vs Jong PSV U21
- 6 March 2026Roda 0–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 15 September 2025Jong PSV U21 0–1 RodaEerste Divisie
- 18 July 2025Jong PSV U21 1–1 RodaFriendlies Clubs
- 7 March 2025Roda 2–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 9 December 2024Jong PSV U21 2–3 RodaEerste Divisie
- 2 August 2024Jong PSV U21 0–1 RodaFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Roda carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.26 for Jong PSV U21. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Roda and 0.75 for Jong PSV U21. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Roda rate 0.46 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jong PSV U21 rate 0.53 and 1.72.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Roda a 4.2% chance of the title and Jong PSV U21 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Roda the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Roda against 0.75 for Jong PSV U21. Roda's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.72 for Jong PSV U21.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Roda at home · Jong PSV U21 away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Roda 8, Jong PSV U21 9.
Roda score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Jong PSV U21 have let in 1 there.
Jong PSV U21 score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Roda have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Roda
- at Jong Utrecht19 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- at Almere City FC23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs Jong AZ30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- at Heracles6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
Jong PSV U21
- vs Dordrecht19 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- at FC Eindhoven23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs NAC Breda2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
- at VVV Venlo6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- at Heracles20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.