Dunkerque
vs
Annecy
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Dunkerque 2–1 Annecy
The model makes it 37% Dunkerque, 28% draw, 35% Annecy — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.58, Annecy 1.54.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Dunkerque and Annecy are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dunkerque vs Annecy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunkerque at 37% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dunkerque vs Annecy
Dunkerque
- L0-2away to PAU18 September 2026
- W2-1Saint Etienne12 September 2026
- D1-1Clermont Foot4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Nancy28 August 2026
- L0-1Montpellier21 August 2026
Annecy
- L1-2Dijon18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Guingamp12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Grenoble4 September 2026
- D1-1Metz29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Reims24 August 2026
What these results say
- Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunkerque failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dunkerque had two goals or fewer.
- Annecy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Annecy conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Annecy.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Dunkerque | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Annecy | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Annecy
- 31 January 2026Dunkerque 0–1 AnnecyLigue 2
- 16 August 2025Annecy 2–2 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 27 January 2025Annecy 0–2 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 16 August 2024Dunkerque 0–2 AnnecyLigue 2
- 30 March 2024Dunkerque 0–2 AnnecyLigue 2
Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Annecy
Dunkerque
- E. Prutsev2 goals1 assists
- S. Keita2 goals1 assists
Annecy
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dunkerque carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.49 for Annecy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Dunkerque and 1.54 for Annecy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunkerque rate 0.73 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Annecy rate 0.72 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Annecy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunkerque a 0% chance of the title and Annecy 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunkerque the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Dunkerque against 1.54 for Annecy. Dunkerque's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.47 for Annecy.