9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Dunkerque vs Annecy Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque
Referee: Chamel, Soulaimane
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Dunkerque 0-1 Annecy.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Dunkerque, 26% draw, 36% Annecy — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dunkerque at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunkerque0%Draw5%Annecy95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Lenny Vallierout: Abner
16'
38'
⚽Moïse Sahiassist: Julien Kouadio
Théna Massock
40'
Opa Sangante
45+3'
🔁Théna Massockout: Gaëtan Robail
45'
47'
Julien Kouadio
🔁Khalil Ayariout: Alex Daho
69'
🔁Souleymane Keitaout: Arthylio Nade
69'
71'
Paul Venot
72'
🔁M. Konéout: Alexis Casadei
72'
🔁Moïse Sahiout: Souleymane Fofana
75'
Alexis Casadei
🔁Egor Prutsevout: M'Baye Niang
79'
81'
🔁Thibault Rambaudout: Adam Yahi
81'
🔁Clement Billemazout: Kilyan Veniere
85'
Antoine Larose

Match stats — Dunkerque vs Annecy

63%Possession37%
6Shots13
0On target5
5Corners10
0.82xG1.3

Goals against chances

Dunkerque0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth
Annecy1 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
  • 73Moha AiramG
  • 27A. LinguetD
  • 26Opa SangantéD
  • 2O. TouréD
  • 24L. VallierD
  • 6J. MorelM
  • 18Théna MassockM
  • 7K. AyariM
  • 10A. LebeauM
  • 11E. PrutsevM
  • 19S. KeitaF
Substitutes
  • 30AbnerM
  • 25Franck AtoenM
  • 93A. DahoF
  • 21L. LoussilahoD
  • 9G. RobailF
  • 23A. NadeF
  • 99M. NiangF
  • 16M. PrévotG
  • 35Firas BelabdelliM
Coach: Albert Sánchez
Annecy 4-3-3
  • 1F. EscalesG
  • 41T. DelphisD
  • 23M. VeillonD
  • 26A. Do MarcolinoD
  • 27J. KouadioD
  • 14M. KonéM
  • 80M. SahiM
  • 25P. VenotM
  • 28A. LaroseF
  • 9T. RambaudF
  • 22C. BillemazF
Substitutes
  • 15P. MozieM
  • 21E. MarreD
  • 11Souleymane FofanaM
  • 8A. CasadeiM
  • 16T. CallensG
  • 33Gabin SecrétantD
  • 19K. VeniereM
  • 20Adam YahiF
Coach: L. Guyot

Form going into Dunkerque vs Annecy

Dunkerque

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to PAU18 September 2026
  • W2-1Saint Etienne12 September 2026
  • D1-1Clermont Foot4 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Nancy28 August 2026
  • L0-1Montpellier21 August 2026

Annecy

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Dijon18 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Guingamp12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Grenoble4 September 2026
  • D1-1Metz29 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Reims24 August 2026

What these results say

  • Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dunkerque failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Dunkerque had two goals or fewer.
  • Annecy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Annecy conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Annecy.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Dunkerque124351717015
9Annecy125161418-416

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Annecy

  • 31 January 2026Dunkerque 0–1 AnnecyLigue 2
  • 16 August 2025Annecy 2–2 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 27 January 2025Annecy 0–2 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 16 August 2024Dunkerque 0–2 AnnecyLigue 2
  • 30 March 2024Dunkerque 0–2 AnnecyLigue 2

Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Annecy

Dunkerque

GoalsAssists

  • E. Prutsev32

Annecy

GoalsAssists

  • M. Sahi50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Annecy won 1–0 at Dunkerque. The model had leaned towards a win for Dunkerque at 38% and given a win for Annecy 36%. The goal: Moïse Sahi 38' for Annecy. On expected goals it finished 0.82–1.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dunkerque a 17.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.8% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 21.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.1%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

For Annecy the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 25.9% going in: 32.0% after a win, 23.8% after a draw, 21.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.0%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dunkerque v Annecy has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Dunkerque win38%▲ +1
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Annecy win36%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.