Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Ajax, 21% draw, 18% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Ajax at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 5O. WijndalD
- 24J. MokioM
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 10O. GloukhF
- 28Y. BissoumaM
- 7S. AdingraF
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 26M. PaesG
- 36D. JanseD
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 1G. CrettazG
- 73Gabriel BrásD
- 4P. SchuursD
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 21T. StormM
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 34Kevin KersM
- 9T. CheryM
- 10D. TadićM
- 30B. LinssenF
- 11W. WillumssonM
- 19Adam TahauiF
- 12N. PolsterG
- 42Y. MoslihD
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 22A. KaplanD
- 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
- 36Freek EntiusG
- 99Clement BischoffF
Form going into Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
NEC Nijmegen
All competitions we cover
- D1-1GO Ahead Eagles20 September 2026
- L0-5away to Juventus17 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cambuur12 September 2026
- D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
- L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
What these results say
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
- Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen did not win any of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NEC Nijmegen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
- 21 February 2026Ajax 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 20 December 2025NEC Nijmegen 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 11 May 2025Ajax 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 1 December 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 18 February 2024Ajax 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ajax at 61% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Tolu Arokodare 7' for Ajax, Tjaronn Chery (penalty) 19' for NEC Nijmegen. On expected goals it finished 1.86–1.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ajax a 64.9% chance to finish in the top four: 68.3% after a win, 61.5% after a draw, 55.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.5%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
For NEC Nijmegen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.4% going in: 6.2% after a win, 3.1% after a draw, 2.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.1%.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Ajax v NEC Nijmegen has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 61% / 21% / 18%: the biggest move is Ajax's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Ajax win61%▲ +7
- Draw21%▼ −3
- NEC Nijmegen win18%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.