Ajax
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Ajax 2–1 NEC Nijmegen
The model makes it 54% Ajax, 24% draw, 22% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Ajax 2.41, NEC Nijmegen 1.10.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 54% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
- D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
NEC Nijmegen
- D1-1GO Ahead Eagles20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cambuur12 September 2026
- D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
- L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
- W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
What these results say
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
- Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
- 21 February 2026Ajax 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 20 December 2025NEC Nijmegen 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 11 May 2025Ajax 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 1 December 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 18 February 2024Ajax 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 3 December 2023NEC Nijmegen 1–2 AjaxEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
- J. Brandt4 goals
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ajax carry a model rating of 7 against 6.72 for NEC Nijmegen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.41 goals for Ajax and 1.10 for NEC Nijmegen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ajax rate 1.11 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEC Nijmegen rate 0.90 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ajax a 13.3% chance of the title and NEC Nijmegen 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Ajax against 1.1 for NEC Nijmegen. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.18 for NEC Nijmegen.