Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Feyenoord carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.92 for AZ Alkmaar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Feyenoord and 1.30 for AZ Alkmaar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Feyenoord rate 1.24 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AZ Alkmaar rate 1.03 and 0.89.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AZ Alkmaar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Feyenoord a 11.6% chance of the title and AZ Alkmaar 23.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.