10 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result

De Kuip, Rotterdam
Referee: Danny Makkelie
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Feyenoord 2-0 AZ Alkmaar.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Feyenoord, 24% draw, 26% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Feyenoord at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Feyenoord99%Draw1%AZ Alkmaar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Lewis Schouten
⚽Nacho Ferri
13'
23'
Ro Zangelo Daal
43'
•Mexx Meerdink
Oussama Targhalline
45+2'
⚽Javi Lópezassist: Charles Vanhoutte
59'
67'
Wouter Goes
68'
🔁Ro Zangelo Daalout: Weslley Pinto Batista
68'
🔁Elijah Dijkstraout: Denso Kasius
🔁Gjivai Zechielout: Tobias van den Elshout
77'
80'
🔁Jordy Clasieout: Bendegúz Kovács
🔁Nacho Ferriout: Gaoussou Kyassou Diarra
89'

Match stats — Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

43%Possession57%
15Shots12
4On target2
7Corners6
2.23xG1.04

Goals against chances

Feyenoord2 from 2.23 xGabout what the chances were worth
AZ Alkmaar0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Feyenoord 4-3-3
  • 1T. ErnstG
  • 26G. ReadD
  • 6J. St. JusteD
  • 35Mika MàrmolD
  • 16Javi LópezD
  • 8G. ZechiëlM
  • 34C. VanhoutteM
  • 28O. TarghallineM
  • 23A. Hadj-MoussaF
  • 19Nacho FerriF
  • 10L. ValenteF
Substitutes
  • 20M. DeijlD
  • 36J. ZinhagelF
  • 27G. DiarraF
  • 33F. KastenmeierG
  • 24T. KraaijeveldM
  • 57J. SchakenF
  • 14S. SteijnM
  • 22T. van den ElshoutM
  • 39L. BossinG
Coach: G. van Bronckhorst
AZ Alkmaar 4-3-3
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 4L. SchoutenD
  • 5M. ChávezD
  • 8J. ClasieM
  • 14C. StengsM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 24A. OufkirF
  • 9M. MeerdinkF
  • 11R. DaalF
Substitutes
  • 7Weslley PatatiF
  • 45Jerolldino ArmantradingF
  • 27Wassim bouzianeF
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 30D. KasiusD
  • 31R. IchiharaD
  • 29W. HoedtD
Coach: L. Echteld

Form going into Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

Feyenoord

All competitions we cover

  • W5-0Utrecht20 September 2026
  • W7-0away to PEC Zwolle13 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Barcelona9 September 2026
  • W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen5 September 2026
  • D2-2ADO Den Haag30 August 2026

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Telstar20 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Sunderland16 September 2026
  • D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
  • W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Feyenoord scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Feyenoord had three goals or more.
  • AZ Alkmaar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Feyenoord127413617+1925
5AZ Alkmaar127232416+823

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar

  • 10 May 2026Feyenoord 1–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 21 September 2025AZ Alkmaar 3–3 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • 5 April 2025AZ Alkmaar 0–1 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • 2 November 2024Feyenoord 3–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 7 February 2024Feyenoord 2–0 AZ AlkmaarKNVB Beker

The full Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar record →

Leading scorers: Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar

Feyenoord

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hadj-Moussa72
  • Nacho Ferri63
  • G. Zechiël54

AZ Alkmaar

GoalsAssists

  • M. Meerdink63
  • R. Daal51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Feyenoord beat AZ Alkmaar 2–0. The model had made a win for Feyenoord its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nacho Ferri 13' for Feyenoord, Javi López 59' for Feyenoord. On expected goals it finished 2.23–1.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Feyenoord a 82.2% chance to finish in the top four: 86.8% after a win, 80.8% after a draw, 76.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.8%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

For AZ Alkmaar the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 68.6% going in: 76.7% after a win, 67.7% after a draw, 65.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.4%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 50% / 24% / 26%: the biggest move is Feyenoord's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Feyenoord win50%▲ +4
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. AZ Alkmaar win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.